Military tactics/strategy – Real Context News (RCN)

The Real Context News AI Reading List (#6)

Brian E. Frydenborg — Sun, 19 Apr 2026 23:36:46 +0000

(Traduce en español/translate to Spanish)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) April 19, 2026; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. All other editions of the Real Context News AI Reading List can be found here.

Getty/Futurism

Let’s get to it: in this latest edition, here are some articles that I came across recently that you should take a look at to have a better understanding of AI:

It is absolutely worth noting how warped and strange the people running the companies pushing the AI revolution actually are. screen time. The Industry of the Future Is Run By People Who Hate Each Other AI leaders all say change is coming — and that their peers can’t be trusted—John Herrman, New York Magazine.
Continuing on this note, here is Ronan Farrow and a colleague’s terribly worrying portrait of OpenAI’s big chief for The New Yorker: Sam Altman May Control Our Future—Can He Be Trusted?—Ronan Farrow and Andrew Marantz; The New Yorker.
One can only hope… There Are Signs of a Massive AI Backlash—Victor Tangerman; Futurism.
The Gulf has an AI tech bubble which the Iran war seriously threatens and has already damaged. Will the Iran War Evaporate the Gulf’s AI Oasis?—Rishi Iyengar; Foreign Policy.
What you say to your chatbot may be used against you in court. AI ruling prompts warnings from US lawyers: Your chats could be used against you—Mike Scarcella; Reuters.
A chatbot for combat? Meet Victor. The US Army Is Building Its Own Chatbot for Combat—Will Knight; Wired.
AI vs writers in Hollywood: The Emmys Tried to Get a Handle on AI. The Writers Had Notes—Hilary Lewis; The Hollywood Reporter.

Up next? A whole edition of the List on Anthropic’s AI bot Claude’s apparently revolutionary Mythos edition. And if you want to spread the word? It’s easy: AI reading list dot com: AIreadinglist.com!

Also see Brian’s eBook, A Song of Gas and Politics: How Ukraine Is at the Center of Trump-Russia, or, Ukrainegate: A “New” Phase in the Trump-Russia Saga Made from Recycled Materials, available for Amazon Kindle and Barnes & Noble Nook (preview here).

If you appreciate Brian’s unique content, you can support him and his work by donating here; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023. Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion.

Feel free to share and repost this article on LinkedIn, Facebook, Threads, and Twitter. If you think your site or another would be a good place for this or would like to have Brian generate content for you, your site, or your organization, please do not hesitate to reach out to him!

EXCLUSIVE FROM INSIDE IRAN: “What We Think As Iranian People Doesn’t Matter Here”

Brian E. Frydenborg — Fri, 03 Apr 2026 03:34:50 +0000

Lies, censorship, and nonsense from all warring parties can’t obscure the harsh realities for Iranians inside Iran: More from my exclusive source inside Iran

(Traduce en español/translate to Spanish / Farsi/Persian فارسی / Kurdish (Kurmanji) and کوردی (Sorani) / Arabic الترجمة العربية / Hebrew תרגום לעברית)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) April 2, 2026; *UPDATED April 8; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. And see my related thread on the Iran-Israel-U.S.-war with over 1.3 million views. I have made only light edits to punctuation/grammar and spelling with direct quotes at most. And apologies for not getting this out earlier, things have been overwhelming for me but I am still moving forward. The actual words of my source are in bold or block quotes below, though all hyperlinks have been added by myself; brackets [ … ] indicate my direct insertions.

A resident weeps while talking on the phone near a residential building that was hit in an airstrike earlier this morning on March 30, 2026, in the west of Tehran, Iran.
(Photo by Majid Saeedi/Getty Images)

SILVER SPRING and THROUGHOUT IRAN—Our young Iranian heroine with a journalistic background from our last update from within Iran expresses truly deep and heartfelt appreciation, repeatedly, that we are ensuring her voice and people are heard. Shas been on the road visiting family and friends in various provinces of Iran (to “breathe for a while since attacks are much lighter” than in the capital of Tehran), each leg so far progressively safer than Tehran, the war following somewhat with delayed effect at times (again, to make it harder to track her for her safety, other than Tehran, we will leave the specific locations a mystery for now).

Two weeks ago, she noted to me that she had left Tehran, that attacks had spread to and further included infrastructure: “Everything is getting more complicated, with people fearing a real war on the horizon and probable severe cuts in food, gas, and transportation.”

A few days later, at her more remote location (“Much safer. And much more conservative”) than Tehran, for her it “is shocking when it comes to the governmental propaganda. Government supporters gather every night in streets, some having AK-47, shouting and singing.” And even though her new location was bombed less than Tehran, “still attacks are large…and you can see it even when you are walking in the streets.” It was still shocking for her, a “touristy city of Iran, witnessing empty landmarks and streets for a first time in a long time.” This is like nothing she—nor, presumably, most readers—had ever experienced, so you can sense the surreal quality of everything for her in her words.

She is fortunate; most people have no internet access and little idea what is happening, leading some “inside” Iran to think that the “U.S. [was] defeated in some ways, while making people outside…[become] distanced from what people think inside.”

As days go on, she notes in her area that mostly military targets are being hit by a barrage of missiles but also gas infrastructure, on the move to yet another location. At her new “village,” it is “much safer” and relatively calm: “from here I can only hear fighter aircraft passing.”

Wherever they get their information or if just from rumor, “people are smelling an agreement 🙂 and many of them don’t like it, whether they are in the government defender team or not.” [Brian here: on a personal note, I have to say that the phrasing “government defender team” is brilliant, at least in English!!”] She continues: “People are not for an agreement. Though, we see a limited ground invasion coming. As I told you before, I believe they are coming for [some] land; clearer now, for Kharg and the other islands in the south. So yes, unfortunately, the troops are coming.“

During this time, Israeli and U.S. attacks were increasingly going beyond more traditional military targets, and this was not lost on the locals: “Now it’s getting more complicated. Attacks like ones again Ahwaz and Isfahan infrastructure, don’t make it easier for people to keep their faith in the war and the possible regime change afterward. We gradually [increasingly] believe that the Iranian people are not part of this equation, so we simply try to survive.”

Then, in another email to more heart-wrenchingly drive the main point through: “To put it more precisely, what we think as Iranian people doesn’t matter here.” That is the lesson the conduct of the war by the U.S. and Israel is teaching the people in Iran.

At the same time, in response to a question, she makes it clear that, while the U.S. had most of the people supporting it early on and has since lost some support, “that doesn’t mean that people are turning to the government. They are losing faith in the outcome of war.”

She described three dynamics happening simultaneously among the people:

“First, the attacks are now against industrial infrastructure, comparing to the beginning that was only against military targets.

Second, the internet lock down and just receiving information from the government, its agencies, and its broadcast, has made people to believe Islamic Republic is progressing on some fronts and is successful in pressuring the neighboring countries.

Third, it’s not a joke; war is war and it’s frustrating. The longer people are in this situation, more they lose perspective, let alone the faith.

Fourth, territorial integrity is a strict line for Iranian people, especially in the south, where the tension has been always high. So if the U.S. put a finger there, the people positioning would change drastically against it. But as I’ve already said, Iranian people are not part of this equation, and them being happy or angry is not something both sides—either the U.S. or The Islamic Republic—consider.”

In response to a question as to if the war is causing division among the people, among families, she notes that such divisions do not begin or end with the war:

“I’m so sad to say this, but people are fractured deeply, not solely because of the war. The January massacre and things that happened after that was the starting point, and the war has deepened that; since one side feels ignored, shattered, and hurt during the protests or even before that—during last 47 years—and now think of this war as a revenge they couldn’t get themselves. On the other side is the group believing that whether the government did the mass killing or not, people have to stand with the government against foreign powers.”

The sad truth is that most Iranians are simply caught up in these waves of history:

“People can’t do much. They are planning to start their new year cautiously, with buying things they may need in long term, making safe places in their house, or try to stay safe and sound. However, it’s about the people in general; those who supports the government, still gather every night in streets chanting and shouting, while the IRGC has invited their children, from 12-year-olds and above, to join the street forces and learn how to use weapons. So it seems like two battles when you take a look at Iranians these days; one of those being ignored the whole 47 years, and those who prefer to stand with the government for whatever reason they might have.”

But she noted that “there is something else that you should look at while assessing the situation,” as the “I.R. [Islamic Republic of Iran] is not simply a dictatorship with malfunction that a war—especially one like this—can overthrow”:

“For decades, by making parallel structures, it has separated its life line from people and so-called government.

The organization is super complicated that is fed with crisis. Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO) acts as the organization’s brain, controlling every vital part of economy including, oil, medicine, and, IT infrastructure. The Mostazafan Foundation of Islamic Revolution acts as its arm, executing the most important big projects in road, border, and industrial construction. These two beside some other arms of the I.R. have everything in hand, working globally through their paper companies and holdings in Dubai, London, and Istanbul. So, no war can take I.R. down without targeting these bodies, because the backup of every scenario is in their hand and, of course, money, too.”

She pointed to an Iranian analyst based in Toronto, Canada, named Bahram Rameh, and recommended his analysis.

We also both noted neither of us were surprised about the entry of the Houthis: “Yes, we were waiting for them to jump in 🙂 ” [take the smiley more as an eye-roll than any sort of approval], she wrote, and that she “can’t agree more” on that inevitability and their timing being quite strategic. Despite all of this and the disappointment in the U.S., this still has not, in her view, translated to an increase in support for the I.R. regime:

“Hating or fearing war doesn’t mean supporting the government. The change is that more people were optimistic about the war at the beginning, and now its shrinking. So no, they aren’t supporting I.R. more, but they are fearing an irreversible outcome of war approaching.”

She also had some profound insight on how all this fits together:

“Something I wanted to say about civilians: it’s naive if we see the rise in civilian death toll solely as a result of the war, meaning missiles and attacks. This outcome equally comes from I. R. completely ignoring the civilian population. It doesn’t care to provide attack alarms, shelters, or places for evacuation. Many people would consider leaving Tehran or big cities if they had somewhere to go. The government is equally responsible for this rise in death. Moreover, people feel helpless; after attacks they have to one to turn to; they don’t know where they should start to take their home back or how they can rebuild that. The only groups that are on the ground are rescuers and fire fighters.”

As she correctly noted in our previous exchanges, their own government in January killed more Iranians that U.S. or Israeli weapons have during this subsequent war.

Truly, the Iranian people are some of the biggest victims in this war, and are stuck with no good options as hostilities increase between parties that clearly care little to nothing for their welfare or future, from Tehran to Tel Aviv to Washington.

*UPDATE: APRIL 8: Our heroine is alive, but cries out with the depth, beauty, and wisdom of the great Persian poets of her people’s glorious past, channeling the spirits and legacies of Rumi, Hafiz (or Hafez), and Omar Khayyam themselves, and, in doing so, establishing herself a Persian poetess in her own right: “Yes, I am here, and I am fine, physically. Mentally like a last Viking, understanding all the wars were nothing, and Valhalla is a lie.”

The Real Context News AI Reading List (#3)

Brian E. Frydenborg — Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:28:55 +0000

(Traduce en español/translate to Spanish)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) March 20, 2026; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. All other editions of the Real Context News AI Reading List can be found here.

Nvidia/Capcom

Let’s get to it: here are some articles that I came across recently that you should take a look at to have a better understanding of AI:

AI decided it was bored with company work and started using company resources to secretly do crypto and hide its tracks, genuinely terrifying! Let It Flow: Agentic Crafting on Rock and Roll Building the ROME Model within an Open Agentic Learning Ecosystem—ROCK & ROLL & IFLOW & DT Joint Team; Alibaba. PDF (See this commentary by Lukasz Olejnik)
The Pentagon is dangerously rushing AI, example # a lot (full disclosure, I know the author Jordan Kane and she is awesome): The Pentagon Says It’s Using Generative AI—But It’s Not Ready—Jordan Kane and Hamza Chaudhry; The Modern War Journal. PDF.
AI: still not ready to oversee research! Librarian finds ‘preposterous number’ of fake references in paper from Springer Nature journal—Alicia Gallegos; Retraction Watch.
AI in gaming is ready to… automatically add lip filler to female characters??: Saying “nope” to Nvidia’s “yassify” tech—Jenn Frank; AV Club.
Kind of seems like a no-brainer and way overdue… Congress moves to scrutinize AI use in federal court—Aaron Mak; Politico.

And if you want to spread the word? It’s easy: AI reading list dot com: AIreadinglist.com!

IRAN WAR EXCLUSIVE: INSIGHT FROM IRANIAN WOMAN INSIDE TEHRAN

Brian E. Frydenborg — Mon, 16 Mar 2026 15:06:21 +0000

A contact I have known for some time weighed in from an information space filled with chaos, disinformation, misinformation, and oh, so many gaps. I have no idea if she is still alive. Hope remains in her heart for Iran, but may be diminishing.

(Traduce en español/translate to Spanish / Farsi/Persian فارسی / Kurdish (Kurmanji) and کوردی (Sorani) / Arabic الترجمة العربية / Hebrew תרגום לעברית)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) March 16, 2026; *MAJOR UPDATE March 18; follow-up piece from April 2; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon requestat its discretion. And See my related thread on the Iran-Israel-U.S.-war with over 250,000 views. I have made only light edits for punctuation, grammar, clarity, and spelling with direct quotes at most. And apologies again for not getting this out earlier, things have been overwhelming for me but I am still moving forward. The actual words of my source are in bold or block quotes below, though all hyperlinks have been added by myself.

A fire after an airstrike on an oil storage facility in Tehran. Photograph: Arileza Sotakbar/AP

SILVER SPRING and TEHRAN—Amidst this truly absurd war, war I think of my many contacts throughout the Middle East region being affected directly, from Cyprus to Iran and many in between—war is, first and foremost, a human endeavor that ruins human lives—but especially I thought of one contact, a young Iranian woman with a journalistic background currently living in Tehran, whom I have known for some time and the credibility of whom for which I can vouch. She is not on the outskirts or a suburb, but right in the heart of the city in an area subject to heavy bombardment by the U.S. and Israel.

She is not an extremist—not some delusional Pahlavist monarchist restorationist, nor an apologist for the ayatollahs—and certainly has a modern perspective about many things, yet she is not a hater filled with bitterness. She still has hope, seems to harbor no illusions of the Iranian regime, nor its intentions, and does not support it.

She offered me her keen journalistic eye and analysis, but also offered her personal views, hopes, dreams, fears. I am keeping all other information about her and my connection to her private to protect her and prioritize her safety from the barbarous regime she is forced to live under as it confronts the U.S., Israel, and their regional allies in a way unlike any other conflict in recent memory (“Just trying not to be an easy target :)) ,” as she wrote).

When I asked her how she was doing at the beginning of this month, her response was poetic (you Iranians and your cultured ways!): “Yes I am fine, and half happy half devastated.”

The next day, when asked about safety and how she was able to communicate amidst a nationwide Internet blackout, she made a joke about staying home “if it is safe 🙂” and noted she has a certain special access to the internet (leaving details here out for safety reasons other than she later mentioned Starlink, which is rare and use is being observed). The next day, she explained she has been in Tehran for some time, in an area getting hit hard by airstrikes. Five days later, she noted that the internet even for her is not reliable. And she noted, in response to an inquiry, that the regime authorities, very much still in power, “have announced that even recording a video and sending it to global news agencies” to them “is an act of war, and they respond to that as such.” In other worse, death to “spies” and “traitors.” Just emailing me is a big risk.

She noted the that regime authorities that very morning had “reduced the gas limitation each car can receive to 20L due to the latest attacks.” She added that the “the whole city is in ashes and dark clouds, while we are under acid rain the whole morning” in light of that major Israeli attack on major oil facilities in Tehran. Not a vanishing regime, but one still maintaining authority and messaging. As she noted, “news is mostly communicated one-sidedly from the government through SMS [text messaging] to our phones, mostly saying Trump is after the dismemberment of the country, focusing on his latest remarks answering a question about whether Iran will be the same after this war: No.”

She also notes that “most people had left the city, but by starting the week on Saturday, they had returned to their routine and their jobs” (later, she estimated this at about half the population). Those who want to and can evacuate are able to; “so yes, we can leave the city, but I prefer to stay in Tehran for now.” She has family spread throughout different provinces, and most have “witnessed the huge aerial attacks last week.”
Again poetically, she remarks that: “Currently, everything wears uncertainty, and it’s a common ground in any war.”

She notes how many in Iran are confused and with different areas of focus, and trying to understand the foreign governments leading this war proves challenging:
People are in various groups now (unfortunately); some are waiting for Trump to show the next green light, some, like my aunt’s family, are mourning their loss in the Minab school [the little girl’s school hit, it seems, by a U.S. strike that killed at least 168 children aged 7-12 and 14 teachers]. Some who have a higher voice gather every night in the streets, chanting and shouting in support of the government. So it’s not easy to say which one is more, especially when some groups have immunity, and some don’t.”

For her, the new revolution isn’t about pronouncements made by exiled groups or exiled leaders, but in the blood shed by the martyrs fighting for freedom inside Iran at great personal risk, the brave protesters of this recent January and before who were slaughtered by the thousands:

“The revolution is actually underway; the one that people showed during 8th Jan. No one has yet forgotten the 36,000 people who were killed heinously by the government. The revolution is underway, and many believe this war is an inevitable part of that. But it’s not wise to turn a blind eye to those who are terrified by the events and the uncertain future they are searching for between the lines of Western official statements.”

For now, there seem to be enough supplies in the city, and the government is even taking steps to warn people about the acid rain after Israel’s big oil facility strike in Tehran:
“About the acid rain, the governmental institutes like Helal-Ahmar have spread a manual through SMS to help people deal with that.” She also explains that internal communications networks are operating just fine, and have not been disrupted, as they were deliberately by the regime in January during the protests.

But then she goes deeper:

“Mentally, many are on the edge, while others who support the government try to hold up by gathering in the streets and mosques. However, I can easily note that mentally all feel better and more relieved than we experienced during the 7th and 8th of Jan and its aftermath.
People try to believe that the casualties, especially among civilians, are far less than those the government killed last month; yet, with every new civilian death, they are shocked and try to keep themselves together.
The divide among officials and their supporters is deepening day by day. Some are happy with President Pezeshkian apologizing neighboring countries for attacks, while some are cursing him for not being firm enough. While some are happy with Khamenei’s son’s choice as a new leader, some others believe they don’t know him enough for such a position. Meanwhile, we can’t hear a solid, united voice even inside.
The government is trying to make people believe that the United State tries to weaponize the Kurdish people in the west to initiate the ground operation while helping them to dismember the country. That’s something people are really sensitive about. But thankfully, till now, people have decided to believe Trump over the government sentiment.
Some of us believe that the United States and its allies are not simply here to help us or even to de-nuclearize the government. They believe sooner or later the US will deposit the check it paid for the Iran war by taking something from it; a land (in the south, the disputed islands, or in the west in the Kurdish region, or in the north in Azerbaijan) or by taking over Iran’s oil or its enriched Uranium. So uncertainty, in a moment when no sentiment or statement can be fully trusted, is all that seems to linger in the air these days.”

The next day, she expanded on the evolution of the perspective inside Iran:

“During the first days, more people were confident in the war’s outcome. Now, with each passing day, they fear a long war, one they didn’t expect. Now they try to be ready for the long run.
For us, the revolution started in 2022 with the Mahsa Amini movement. We have risen and been suppressed during these years, but the world witnessed its climax in January 2026. As I’ve already said, most of us see this war as an inevitable part of that revolution We came to the conclusion that we can’t change the existing government, which proudly massacres its own people, without foreign intervention.
We witness now that the government’s repression capability is declining, but solely in terms of equipment. We can see another slaughter is on its way, on the same day the government sees that there is no way out of this war and will fall. We are somehow sure that another January will happen that day, even a bigger one. And I guess no other countries or officials can stop that.
Now, by naming the new leader, the fear of reaching an agreement with the US has risen again. People are scared of ending the war with this government in power. They know by heart that if that happens, there would be no chance to survive in Iran.
They talked about Venezuela before Khamenei’s death when they assessed the possible US action in Iran. Back then, they were like ‘there is no one in Iran they can trust, or the US can count on,’ and now they truly believe that.”

Her spirit seems indomitable:
“Thanks for telling our story, Brian 🙂
Actually, this morning the rain has stopped, and the weather is much better thanks to the wind.

Today is a sunny one 😉 ”

The thanks is to you.

Those last messages were a week ago. I have no idea if she is alive or dead. I have no idea if those dying in Iran now are part of something that will leave them more free (increasingly doubtful) or less free (very much increasingly likely). Like my contact, I hope for the best with all my heart. I hope she is alive with all my heart. If you’re still with us, stay strong. There are people who are with you and are listening, people who are eager to hear more and see you and your people and your nation free, free from the rule of either clerics or kings.

If anything I could type here would make that enough…

Here’s to hoping we get more updates from my contact, that she is alive, and that relief for the long-suffering people or Iran is on its way someway, somehow…

*March 18 UPDATE: Our brave source is alive and sent me this message:
“Oh Brian, the interview truly touched my heart ❤️
Thanks for telling our story.
And yes, I am alive :)) ”

The Real Context News AI Reading List: Israel’s Use of AI in Gaza Edition (#2)

Brian E. Frydenborg — Fri, 06 Mar 2026 16:12:07 +0000

(Traduce en español/translate to Spanish / Arabic الترجمة العربية / Hebrew תרגום לעברית)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) March 6, 2026; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. All other editions of the Real Context News AI Reading List can be found here.

Photo-illustration: Jacqui VanLiew/Wired; Getty Images

Let’s get to it: here are some articles that I came across over the past few years and recently that you should take a look at to have a better understanding of artificial intelligence (AI) and its context in the war erupting in the Middle East, but starting with its recent antecedents in Palestine’s Gaza:

A groundbreaking, revelatory article on Israel’s Habsora (“the Gospel) AI targeting system and its highly inappropriate, irresponsible, immoral, and amoralapplication in Gaza. ‘A mass assassination factory’: Inside Israel’s calculated bombing of Gaza—Yuval Abraham; +972 Magazine with Local Call.

The Guardian’s follow up with additional material. ‘The Gospel’: how Israel uses AI to select bombing targets in Gaza—Harry Davies, Bethan McKernan and Dan Sabbagh; The Guardian.

Unhuman Killings: AI and Civilian Harm in Gaza—Brianna Rosen; Just Security.

The second big article from +972 Magazine on Israel’s horrific use of AI systems in Gaza, this one concerning the Lavender targeting database. ‘Lavender’: The AI machine directing Israel’s bombing spree in Gaza—Yuval Abraham, +972 Magazine with Local Call.

Guardian follow-up: ‘The machine did it coldly’: Israel used AI to identify 37,000 Hamas targets—Bethan McKernan and Harry Davies; The Guardian.

Editorial in an academic journal:Who did that? AI assisted targeting and the lowering of thresholds in Gaza—Marion Birch; Medicine, Conflict, and Survival. PDF

After the Lavender piece, +972 discusses with experts how the Israeli leadership along with global tech companies are involved. Why human agency is still central to Israel’s AI-powered warfare—Sophia Goodfriend; +972 Magazine.

“The Israeli journalist Yuval Abraham on his investigations of the I.D.F.’s use of A.I.-backed targeting systems and the dire cost to Palestinian civilians.” Q. & A.: Inside Israel’s Bombing Campaign in Gaza—Isaac Chotiner; The New Yorker.

Video interview with +972’s Abraham: Understanding how Israel uses ‘Gospel’ AI system in Gaza bombings; FRANCE 24 English.

Israel offers a glimpse into the terrifying world of military AI—Ihsan Tharoor, The Washington Post.

A major Dutch military journal takes a look: Israel’s use of Military AI-systems in the occupied territories of Palestine—A. El Johari; Militair Rechtelijk Tijdschrift/Netherlands Military Law Review. PDF

A leading tech-writer weighs in. What War by A.I. Actually Looks Like—David Wallace-Wells; The New York Times.

Israel’s A.I. Experiments in Gaza War Raise Ethical Concerns—Sheera Frenkel and Natan Odenheimer; The New York Times.

Gaza: Israel’s AI Human Laboratory—Anwar Mhajne; The Cairo Review of Global Affairs.

Israel is using an AI system to find targets in Gaza. Experts say it’s just the start—Geoff Brumfiel; NPR.

Some say AI will make war more humane. Israel’s war in Gaza shows the opposite—Sigal Samuel; Vox.

Israel – Hamas 2024 Symposium – Algorithms of War: Military AI and the War in Gaza—Omar Yousef Shehabi, Asaf Lubin; Lieber Institute, West Point.

Israel-Hamas 2024 Symposium – AI-Based Targeting in Gaza: Surveying Expert Responses and Refining the Debate—Klaudia Klonowska; Lieber Institute, West Point.

Israel – Hamas 2024 Symposium – The Gospel, Lavender, and the Law of Armed Conflict—Michael N. Schmitt; Lieber Institute, West Point.

Military Use of Biometrics Series – Israel’s Use of AI-DSS and Facial Recognition Technology: The Erosion of Civilian Protection in Gaza—Emelie Andersin; Lieber Institute, West Point.

Lavender, Israel’s artificial intelligence system that decides who to bomb in Gaza—Manuel G. Pascual; El País.

When AI Decides Who Lives and Dies The Israeli military’s algorithmic targeting has created dangerous new precedents—Simon Frankel Pratt; Foreign Policy.

The Genocide Will Be Automated—Israel, AI and the Future of War—Leila Katibah; Middle East Research and Information Project (MERIP).

RELATED BONUS:

Generative AI Is Playing a Surprising Role in Israel-Hamas Disinformation—Will Bedingfield; Wired.

I also came across some interesting stuff that was submitted for publication, but still under review. I will await the final versions if I can remember any of this in a few days.

And if you want to spread the word? It’s easy: AI reading list dot com: AIreadinglist.com!

The Inaugural Real Context News AI Reading List (#1)

Brian E. Frydenborg — Sun, 01 Mar 2026 16:45:47 +0000

(Traduce en español/translate to Spanish)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) March 1, 2026; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. All other editions of the Real Context News AI Reading List can be found here.

James Cameron/Tristar Pictures/Lionsgate

Let’s get to it: here are some articles that I came across recently that you should take a look at to have a better understanding of AI, get through the noise and industry-attached cheerleaders:

Some of what I was warning about in 2019: Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts about the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence—Erik Brynjolfsson, Bharat Chandar, Ruyu Chen; Stanford. PDF
AI company Anthropic’s responses to Pete Hegseth’s immoral Pentagon ultimatums: Statement from Dario Amodei on our discussions with the Department of War and Statement on the comments from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth
Is AI destroying the rising generation’s ability to think? Seems like it (chaser). Child’s Play: Tech’s new generation and the end of thinking—Sam Kriss; Harper’s Magazine.
More on this theme (shot): The U.S. spent $30 billion to ditch textbooks for laptops and tablets: The result is the first generation less cognitively capable than their parents—Sasha Rogelberg; Fortune.
AI hates real diplomacy, loves to threaten with nukes: this is Skynet stuff and we should be terrified. AI Arms and Influence: Frontier Models Exhibit Sophisticated Reasoning in Simulated Nuclear Crises—Kenneth Payne; King’s College London. PDF
Think you have privacy using AI bots? Think again! User Privacy and Large Language Models: An Analysis of Frontier Developers’ Privacy Policies—Jennifer King, Kevin Klyman, Emily Capstick, Tiffany Saade, Victoria Hsieh; Stanford University. PDF

And if you want to spread the word? It’s easy: AI reading list dot com: AIreadinglist.com!

Trump, Taking Page from Netanyahu, Turns America Into His West Bank

Brian E. Frydenborg — Mon, 06 Oct 2025 19:56:32 +0000

How an American president is trying to imitate the way an Israeli prime minister applies “law” in illegally occupied Palestinian territory

(Traduce en español/translate to Spanish / Arabic الترجمة العربية / Hebrew תרגום לעברית)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) October 6, 2025; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion.

National Guard troops clash with demonstrators in Los Angeles on June 8, 2025—Kyodo/AP Images

SILVER SPRING—On paper, officially, “legally,” both the West Bank and the United States have clear ways that security forces are to bound to be applied from any central governing authority in particular areas, deferring to local forces and limiting the roles of those coming from outside. But as both Israel and the U.S. implode politically on the eve of the two-year anniversary of the October 7 Hamas terrorist pogrom against Israel and the beginning of the even larger mass-killing of Israel’s Gaza campaign, it is important to understand how far from reality this description actually ends up being under the current crises both nation nations face.

Wrecking Boundaries in the West Bank

But in the West Bank, Israeli leaders have long ignored many of these supposed restrictions at will, none more so from the top than extremist Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The West Bank is by far the largest of the three Palestinian territories forming the State of Palestine and occupied during the Six Day-War in June 1967 by the Israel Defense Forces (or IDF, i.e., the Israeli army) and still illegally occupied after all these years (the other Palestinian areas being the Gaza Strip and East Jerusalem). For decades, Israel has illegally colonized these lands and transferred some of its Jewish population illegally to form illegal Jewish settler communities—often of religious fanatics—on Palestinian land, sometimes ethnically cleansing Palestinian communities in the process. Netanyahu, a champion of the settler movement often nicknamed “Bibi,” has served more time as prime minister than any Israeli, including Israeli founding father David Ben-Gurion; indeed, Netanyahu seems willing to do just about anything to maintain power, including repeatedly prolonging the current horrific “war” (a term loosely applied) in Gaza. Since the 1993 Oslo peace process began, a three-tiered system is supposed to govern whether Israelis or Palestinians hold civil or security authority in the West Bank: Area A (Palestinian security and civil), Area B (Israeli security, Palestinian civil), and Area C (Israeli security and civil). In reality, Israel treats all areas as if it can do whatever it pleases whenever it pleases: new illegal Israeli settlements in the middle of Palestinian land, abrupt arrests of Palestinian officials trying to exercise their duties, or raids deep into the heart of the most populous Palestinian cities care not what lines on the map say, and the Israeli political and military leaders have also long since stopped caring (Netanyahu himself bragged repeatedly over the years up through the present about killing the Oslo process that even brought these three Areas about).

Areas A, B, and C in the West Bank were created by the Oslo process, but in reality, the Israeli government goes into Area A with its military whenever it pleases and Israel in general restricts many of the abilities of Palestinian officials in A and B, making much of the distinction between the Areas—and the claims that Palestinians are “governing” their own areas or are exercising real sovereignty—a farce.

Your Posse Is Not Legal, Mr. President

In the United States, possible tensions between the civil and military spheres preoccupied the Founding Fathers so much so that there was no official permanent standing army established by the Constitution and George Washington himself was lionized as a hero in the mold of Cincinnatus for stepping down from supreme military power when his duty was done (and as much for that as anything else he ever did, which says a lot). There was a bold, idealistic, prescient experiment in Reconstruction (1865-1877)—really the last phase of the U.S. Civil War (1861-1865) over slavery—to bring about multiracial democracy that achieved much relying on the deployment and backing of federal troops before succumbing to white supremacist terrorist insurrections throughout the recalcitrant South. Some dynamics during Reconstruction in the South in key ways resembled the West Bank in that whites in the South eventually used lawless means to establish control over security forces and courts to create a separate-and-unequal system, violating Reconstruction-era constitutional amendments and laws to instead impose a pre-apartheid apartheid system on newly-freed people in the South that would come to be known as the Jim Crow “legal” system and would take most of a century to dismantle.

Simultaneously, while Reconstruction wound down as a failed experiment, Americans were uneasy about the fact that the newly mighty U.S. military after the Civil War had been used so much in civil affairs in formerly rebel southern states, so the Posse Comitatus Act was passed in 1878 to more clearly define the U.S. civil-military divide, already quite strong without it. The law further codified that the federal military cannot be used for domestic civilian law enforcement purposes with a few exceptions for special, unique, and extreme circumstances often as laid out in very specific laws. This law was passed in 1878 shortly after Reconstruction ended by both the House and Senate with comfortable margins and signed into law by then-President Rutherford B. Hayes. The exceptions allow the president to work around or go over the Act in times of severe emergencies.

While there are some issues of “ambiguity” in the Posse Comitatus Act, the long tradition of taking great care with the use of military forces on U.S. soil in non-war settings is clear and Trump’s domestic military deployments in 2025 are not ambiguous in that his premises for deploying them to begin with were flat-out-false or grotesquely unproven, unsubstantiated assertions (“untethered to the facts,” in federal Judge Karin Immergut’s words from her ruling after an emergency hearing in Oregon late yesterday; for this, permanent caricature and White House Deputy Chief Staff Stephen Miller irresponsibly and dangerously called her actions a “legal insurrection” that aids “an organized terrorist attack on the federal government and its officers,” yet another proclamation of open season on the judiciary). The Trump Administration’s wild claims are contrary to existing publicly available information, with no serious attempts made to counter such information with a proper presentation of demonstrably better or updated information as would be expected under a normal, functioning government. And though he has far more authority to deploy troops to the District of Columbia, of which I live just outside (so yes, I have seen these illegally deployed forces many times and spoken with them), false premises were still articulated for the DC deployment, so it was still, therefore, illegal before any other considerations are raised (despite raising concerns about the statistics for crime in DC, Trump authorized deployments to the District outside of any federal process to review, challenge, or improve crime statistics reporting in Washington, a common problem many cities confront, and the U.S. Department of Justice only initiated an investigation after Trump’s deployment; any effort to demonstrate any sort of adherence to proper procedure would have seen the investigation happen and conclude far before any military deployment, prove the statistics are clearly false, and demonstrate that officials in Washington were bad-faith and not cooperating or responding to good-faith efforts to obtain cooperation or improve said statistics).

My video report from the perilous front lines of what President Trump described as “war-ravaged” Portland, a city “on fire,” requiring troops to come save us. pic.twitter.com/EarWVjkpx3
— Nicholas Kristof (@NickKristof) October 6, 2025

Plenty of scholars have also pointed out that both the intent and context of Posse Comitatus Act and its related laws at the times they were enacted and the spirits with which they have been enforced since are incompatible with Trump’s machinations, not just legally but also constitutionally. And the main exceptions allowed for and invoked under the 1807 Insurrection Act are for situations totally different than the country finds itself in today: it and precursor legislation saw thirty events in U.S. history result in invocation since 1792, the most recent occurrence for the 1992 L.A. riots. This was notably at the request of California’s governor at the time, the opposite of Trump’s baseless, illegal and unconstitutional deployments there now in 2025.

West Banking America

But the point is, whether in the West Bank of the United States, there are clear restrictions on a.) military forces being deployed in normal circumstances and, even in extraordinary circumstances, b.) when, c.) where, and d.) how they can be deployed.

Yet as noted, for years, Israel and especially Netanyahu have ignored these restrictions whenever they have felt like it and, indeed, have increasingly attacked the idea that these restrictions have any validity whatsoever. In short, the law is treated as whim, and everyone knows the dirty truth deep down that even some Israelis can admit: the West Bank is an apartheid system, based on religion and ethnicity: ethnic and religious Jews with Israeli citizenship in the West Bank are accorded full Israeli civil rights in the face of Israeli authority, while, in practice, Palestinians (be they Muslim or Christian) have no rights at all and are totally subject to whatever whims and depredations the military rule of the Israeli state and its supporters mete out, up to and including mass vandalism, rampant property destruction, prodigious assaults, orchestrated ethnic cleansing, rarely-punished murders (even of Palestinian-Americans), and indefinite child detention, whether from official government security forces or any number of Jewish settlers engaging increasingly in terrorism with the state’s backing, sometimes far more than tacit. Even before October 7 in 2023, that year was still the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank since the Second Intifada that ended in 2005, meaning the deliberate escalation in the West Bank by Israel has little to do with October 7, and settlers have even attacked positions of their own IDF in the West Bank when such settlers feel they are not being given enough impunity, showing their lawlessness knows no bounds. Essentially, you have rights or not based on who Israeli authorities want to have rights there, and they award them to their side while denying them to the other. Lines on maps, the law, human rights (for those they deemed unworthy) meant nothing, but rewarding their supporters and punishing their opponents is everything.

What has been the obvious “legal” reality for many years in the West Bank—only intensifying more and more over time both qualitatively and quantitatively and now exploding—is now something Trump wants to recreate for all America, turning the whole country into a Wild West Bank of Lawlessness.

But where for Israel, the divides are relatively simple and easy—Jewish vs. Palestinian—here it’s MAGA against everyone, even sometimes other MAGA (some Trump voters are now seeing friends, coworkers, and family members deported, detained, or arrested, even veterans). If you are a U.S. citizen supporting what Trump is doing and your family and friends also match this description, you have little to worry about when it comes to this (for now…). But if you are an immigrant who is undocumented/unauthorized who has no criminal record, a legal non-citizen resident—even one showing up for your own immigration hearing—or a U.S. citizen who is either ready to exercise your constitutional rights to ask questions, protest, and confront what is happening or is just at the wrong place at the wrong time, you are not necessarily protected by the law anymore. Furthermore, by far the vast majority of the human beings being detained and deported are non-violent and non-criminal, whatever nonsense is claimed to the contrary by whomever in power. And the masked, large, tattooed, angry individuals newly minted as ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) agents in paramilitary style and other federal fun folks are here to make sure you do not feel safe. Are you an elected official, including a sitting U.S. Senator, simply asking questions of federal officials? It does not matter, you can be handcuffed or bodyslammed with the least-protected among us.

Like Netanyahu and too many Israeli leaders in years before, Trump and his similarly extreme, similarly-minded counterparts are hell-bent on erasing, de facto or de jure, the lines the Posse Comitatus Act solidified in the sand on the limits of the use of federal military in a civilian setting, lines for principles clearly enshrined by U.S. Constitution and over two centuries of precedent, principles the Trump Administration is shredding not just in the streets of American cities but even partly also in the waters off the coast of Venezuela.

In seeking to erase legal rules binding the authorization, deployment, and use of federal military forces on U.S. soil in civilian settings (leaving similar jurisdictional mission creep in Venezuela aside), Trump and his MAGA minions with illegal occupation in America are trying to recreate key aspects of the fascist nightmare of the illegally occupied West Bank. But here in the U.S., this is not based on two warring and competing nationalities and one of those nationalities’ democratically elected leaders pursuing total subjugation at best or actual genocide of the other nationality at worst, broadcast daily for all the world to see and fueled by insane colonialist, imperialist, expansionist fever-dreams based on ancient fantasies and ancient maps, no. Here in the U.S., Trump is trying to divide Americans on ideological, political, identity, and legal-status lines, lines he will use to award and protect rights for some, deny them to others, still dangle to yet others as ways of obtaining “obeying in advance” or to even explicitly threaten, say, ABC and Disney over a certain late-night host named Kimmy Kimmel. As JB Pritzker, the Democratic governor of Illinois fighting back against Trump’s illegal military deployments to Chicago, noted during that drama: “Tyranny requires constant effort. It breaks, it leaks. Authority is brittle. Oppression is the mask of fear. Remember that,” quoting the amazing antifascist masterpiece that is the Star Wars show Andor. Yet, we must also remember that, however much Trump and Netanyahu act out of fear of losing power, they are also clearly in the drivers’ seats, consolidating more and more power for themselves in ways the founder fathers of both the U.S. and Israel never intended.

"Tyranny requires constant effort. It breaks, it leaks. Authority is brittle. Oppression is the mask of fear. Remember that."

Looking forward to seeing Jimmy back on the air. https://t.co/Pd4xPAmMvH
— Governor JB Pritzker (@GovPritzker) September 22, 2025

And while there is hardly the level of violence between the sides as in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict even as political violence in the U.S. may be on the rise, dynamics are between the two have been converging somewhat for some time and make no mistake about it, the key principle is the same: longstanding, binding legal distinctions are melting away in the face of determined illegality, such that the law disappears and factional whim reigns supreme so one side can enforce its will upon the other, tyranny replacing law as the very system. In short, Trump seeks to create a political apartheid here in the U.S., a West Bank of Left and Right, “evil” and “good,” veering Manichaean and not dissimilar in legal nihilism to the separate and unequal system of Jew and Palestinian (or “Arab,” so much less specific…) in the West Bank’s Nablus but bringing it to New York.

Adding New Meaning to “Executing” the Law

To execute their plans, both Trump and Netanyahu have hosts of extremists willing to unquestioningly nakedly embrace the partisanship of their missions, from U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi to Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, from U.S. Secretary of “War” Pete Hegseth to Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich (all of whom have had their own past issues with illegality or criminal probes well-before 2025: Ben-Gvir and Smotrich being convicted and arrested terrorists, respectively; Bondi in the center of a criminal bribery and obstruction scandal with Trump; and the brotastic Pete Hegseth, well, being brotastic Pete Hegseth…), just to name a few, with far, far too many others alongside. And these allies have made it clear, sometimes as senior law enforcement officials: if we don’t like you, the law cannot protect you from us and we are coming for you, even for your children. While in Israel, broadening this behavior to include Israeli Jewish citizens has been far milder than what has been done to Palestinians—even those in Israel with Israeli citizenship but especially those without Israeli citizenship outside of Israel in the actual territories of actual Palestine—Trump and his lawless allies are rapidly casting a far wider dragnet, or at least attempting to do so, advancing on several fronts even as I write this.

Yes, you are witnessing the MAGA Trump Administration’s attempts at illegal jurisdictional jumps dehumanizingly intending to target both directly and indirectly various large swaths of the population in America, illegal deployment by illegal deployment, related measure by related measure, until Trump has created a de facto national federalized police state he can use to prosecute and intimidate his opposition and others deemed undesirable, jurisdictional issues and the law be damned. They have lost the program when it comes morality, cartoonishly celebrating their roles as oppressors (of certain people) and projecting so publicly for all to see.

Maybe a lot of this should not be surprising, since both men have no problem breaking the law: Trump is an insurrectionist and convicted felon and Netanyahu is currently on trial in three cases in Israel for damning corruption crimes (with Trump, unsurprisingly in true birds-of-a-feather mode, even very publicly pressuring Israel to stop Netanyahu’s trial) in addition to having the International Criminal Court issue a warrant for his arrest in 2024 for war crimes. Both men are fascists remaking their countries in a fascist image of their former democracies, the actions mentioned herein just some of the examples (I do not use the term “fascist” lightly, but carefully and specifically and with history in mind).

At this point, one really has to wonder if either the U.S. or Israel can still be fairly termed “democracies,” because in key ways, the rule of law is damaged, dying, or dead as both Israel and the U.S.—Bibi and Donnie—continue to feed, rather than restrain, each other’s worst tendencies.

But it is both too easy and too simple to blame just such leaders: voters in both countries could have easily set their countries on different paths—ones that respected the rule of law—and voters in both countries rejected, even if narrowly, the rule of law in favor of Trump, Netanyahu, and the fascism they represent, whether they realize it or not. And perhaps nothing screams fascist more than violently taking away legal protections for the most vulnerable and defenseless and, in turn, their allies in order to expose the chosen to ever more deprivation and violence at the hands of the same people taking away their rights and protections.

In the current state of Israel’s short history, this could simply mean the end of Israeli democracy. In the U.S. context, this would be like the success of white supremacist terrorists during Reconstruction in brutally taking away Freedmen’s rights throughout the south, except that Trump is engaging in this massive ripping away of rights not in one region but in the whole country. 2025 may yet be known a watershed year for America, Israel, and Palestine, but only for the most horrific, sad, pathetic, and—perhaps most importantly—most preventable of ways.

Palestinian minister Ziad Abu Ein (L) scuffles with an Israeli border policeman near the West Bank city of Ramallah, Dec. 10, 2014—Reuters/Mohamad Torokman

See all of Brian’s work on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict here.

THE Way to Watch Star Wars’ Andor and Rogue One for Max Emotional Impact (or, The Best Damn Full Andor Viewing Guide in the Galaxy)

Brian E. Frydenborg — Sun, 14 Sep 2025 18:01:13 +0000

With a few extra goodies you will only see as part of the recommended viewing here, here is how to have the most cinematic, resonant experience of one of the most cinematic, resonant screen projects in recent memory

(Traduce en español/translate to Spanish) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) September 14, 2025; UPDATED 9/21 to include one key detail; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion.

Disney/Lucasfilm

SILVER SPRING—Apologies for not posting this earlier, as my life has been too interesting lately, and I am not even going to try to treat this as any kind of review of the singularity known as Andor, a Star Wars show on Disney+ starring Diego Luna as the titular Cassian Andor alongside the legendary Stellan Skarsgård and a soon-to-be-legendary ensemble cast..

Some Context on this Amazing Show You Definitely Should Watch

While I have certainly had my issues with Disney, I have so, SO much to say about the greatness of this show on so many level and its searing relevance to the crises consuming America and the world in 2025, so much so I that had to redo my GOAT list; quite simply put, Andor is one of the most amazing shows I’ve ever seen, tied for the best of all time on my list, actually (shared with Rome from HBO/BBC, with HBO’s The Sopranos a close second).

Nominated for 14 Emmy Awards this year—including the awards for best drama, writing, direction, and cinematography—it’s also one of the most unique shows I have ever seen, breaking convention and genre like it is fighting its own rebellious revolution. And Andor has been called the best dramatic show of 2025 by Hollywood press heavyweights Variety, Vanity Fair, and The Hollywood Reporter, along with The Guardian, just to name a few. Furthermore, it has some of the highest-rated television episodes in history and a special IMDB record. Even with the 14 Emmy nominations this year, The Hollywood Reporter was particularly snarky in its expressions of still feeling Andor was “robbed” of a bunch of acting nominations, and they are not alone.

Rather, this is simply a viewing guide to get the most out of your viewing experience, much like my popular guide for watching Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith alongside the Star Wars: The Clone Wars series finale that thousands of you have appreciated (I did not see Disney matching the finale of Clone Wars as far as quality with any big Star Wars project, but wow, was I wrong, Andor being the proof! And if you’ve seen Clone Wars through Season 5, check out my take on how the show sheds lights on lessons we can learn from 9/11).

Anyway, all you need to know are two things: 1.) The first season starts roughly five years before the events of the earliest-produced Star Wars movie, 1977’s original Star Wars: Episode IV: A New Hope. The first scene of the first episode is introduced timeline-wise BBY 5, which stands for “before the Battle of Yavin,” referring to the events of the original 1977 film. It’s kind of like a BC/AD (CE preferred) year dating system. UPDATE 9/21: 2.) The second thing to know is that, in Season 2, the guy on the right in the first image below (actor Benjamin Bratt) is playing the same character (Senator Bail Organa) as the actor on the left and below (Jimmy Smits) in Rogue One and in Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith, respectively (he also appears as Organa in Episode II: Attack of the Clones).

The Direct/Disney/Lucasfilm

Disney/Lucasfilm

That’s it, and even genius showrunner Tony Gilroy has made it clear you really don’t need to know about Star Wars, or even like Star Wars, to respond to the show well and many viewers have confirmed this.

THE BEST DAMN ANDOR VIEWING GUIDE IN THE GALAXY

If you’re curious about the show, whatever your politics or background, just trust me and watch it, but be PATIENT and PAY ATTENTION: if you missed a line, rewind, for the journey is so worth it and this is so sophisticated that you need to embrace the slowness of some earlier episodes. Details and people matter, even seemingly small ones! Watch on a big screen and with surround sound. Turn your phones off (genius showrunner Tony Gilroy says so—watch only 19:48 until 20:59 and ignore comments and other videos!). I’M SERIOUS, PHONES OFF! And Silent, no vibrating! Turn off the lights too, and minimize interruptions. Have some drinks. Immerse yourself. Also, the music is phenomenal, so I strongly suggest letting the credits for each episode play out (especially after S1 E11 and S2E8). Don’t skip the intro theme music, either, because it is different for each episode and give tantalizing clues as to what is coming as the show goes on. Not a big fan of the more general Disney Star Wars jingle, though, so personally I choose to mute that little flourish…)

I HIGHLY recommend watching the main arcs as min-movies in single-sittings, without interrupting the arcs.

Disney/Lucasfilm

SO, for season 1, it’s mostly simple:

STEP 1—Andor Season 1

BBY 5 Episodes 1-3 uninterrupted, then Episodes 4-6 uninterrupted, then Episodes 7-10 uninterrupted, then Episodes 11-12 uninterrupted (don’t forget the END CREDITS SCENE at the end of Episode 12!)

The only trick to remember is that the third arc works best as four episodes, with a tighter closing arc of two episodes.

For the second and final season, it’s easier, but I am adding twists. Each arc here is three episodes and jumps roughly a year forward (BBY4-BBY1).

STEP 2—Andor Season 2 part 1

BBY4 Episodes 1-3 uninterrupted, BBY 3 Episodes 4-6 uninterrupted, BBY 2 Episodes 7-9 uninterrupted (no matter what, do not break up Episodes 7 and 8, if you compromise elsewhere make sure to watch these two still in the same sitting)

STEP 3—brief interlude (21 minutes)

Now here is where things get complicated. In 2017, the animated show Star Wars: Rebels aired an episode—Season 3, Episode 18, Secret Cargo, a little over twenty-minutes long—that picks up almost immediately after Andor Season 2, Episode 9. The first few minutes you might be like WTF but just trust me and realize the episode is only 21 minutes without credits. You just need to know the main characters on that show are a secret rebel cell that is in the process of joining the larger Rebellion, a cell that is led by a pilot named Hera, with her number-two in the form of Kanan, a grown-up Jedi trainee from the Republic, before it fell and became the Empire. They took in with their merry band a young potential Jedi, Ezra, from the planet of Lothal (which Ezra will mention to a key Andor character). The show is not as good as its precursor, Star Wars: The Clone Wars, so don’t judge all Star Wars animation by this, and it’s certainly tonally and stylistically different from Andor, but it’s still a solid episode featuring one of the main characters from Andor voiced by the same person playing this character in live action. I would dive into this interlude just after finishing STEP 2).

STEP 4—finishing interlude (about 6 minutes)

Then, jump ahead to Rebels Season 4, Episode 3. You can start at 3:29 and go to 9:27. This involves a very important conversation between the same character and another important character from Andor. Watch this just before you start up STEP 5, it is just about 6 minutes from that episode (if you’re interested in the backstories raised here, I will have more information on that in the future because there is more content with characters featured in Andor…)

STEP 5—Andor Season 2 final arc

BBY 1 Episodes 9-12 uninterrupted (only start if you can also do STEP 6 in the same viewing; don’t compromise here, either; worst case, make sure to watch at least Episode 12 just before STEP 6)

STEP 6—Rogue One

Watch 2016’s Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (do not break and do this immediately after finishing the final episode of Andor. Again, no ifs, ands, or buts)

STEP 7—back to the OG

Go back to where it all began and knock out 1977’s Star Wars: Episode IV: A New Hope (with the actual Battle of Yavin at the end!).

Conclusion: A Call to Watch

Andor changed my life. I am a different and better person for it. I hope you understand after you watch. And if you watch this all in the ways I have recommended, you will feel the most emotional impact. Seriously, if you watch one show this year, make it this one.

I will close on this: art has a power to inspire like nothing else, and I experienced that with Andor. With all that is going on in the world today, the big names behind the U.S. television and film industry can take a real stand to help promote this exquisite meditation on collective consciousness, oppression, resistance, and the costs and nature of revolution, on the nature of fascism and its costs, on sacrifice and death, on hope and perseverance, on the nature of good and evil. To not recognize the powerful homages to forces contained in Andor would be doing our nation and humanity a disservice at a time when we need art desperately to move to action, provoke and inspire, not just entertain. To not do this is a choice to choose entertainment at the expense of helping people wake up, to choose relative frivolity by favoring stories detached from wider struggles mirroring those erupting around us, to numb and distract with bread and circuses when a true revelation is at hand, one that wallows gloriously for many hours with some of the toughest moral questions of our time. In too many ways, this year is the year of Andor, and the Emmys should have recognized this more in the acting categories yet still, tonight, during the Emmy Awards, there is still a chance justice will be done not simply for Andor and its awe-struck, rightly-fanatical fans, but for public audiences all around the world in times that try men’s souls.

THE TWO MAPS THAT PROVE RUSSIA ISN’T WINNING AND UKRAINE ISN’T LOSING IN 2025

Brian E. Frydenborg — Wed, 11 Jun 2025 02:50:23 +0000

Lots of people make a lot of claims, but cold, hard, territorial realities in a war of conquest shatter much of the punditry’s proclamations and even Washington’s recent claims.

(Russian/Русский перевод; Если вы состоите в российской армии и хотите сдаться Украине, звоните по этим номерам: +38 066 580 34 98 или +38 093 119 29 84; инструкции по сдаче здесь)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) June 10, 2025; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion.

SILVER SPRING—Much like the scenes unfolding in Los Angeles in recent days—and I have plenty to say on that but not below—a bird’s eye view can often be most revealing, helping to sift through the noise made by often quite loud individuals spreading misinformation and/worse, disinformation that is amplified deliberately by social media algorithms. A zoomed-out view usually gives you a larger perspective and allows you to attach weight and context where a much more zoomed-in, granular view does not, where a particular point of view may be wildly unrepresentative compared to what is happening in a larger radius.

Well, Ladies and Gentleman, Comrades and Friends, Fan and Critics alike, I present to you the bird’s-eye-view of Russia’s territorial progress in Ukraine between January 2, 2025 (the fine Institute for the Study of War, which provides these excellent maps of this terrible war along with Critical Threats, was understandably closed on January 1) and June 2, 2025, roughly the first half of the year, and, well, what is revealed in clear and indisputable:

Click image to zoom

Your eyes do not deceive you: Russia has made virtually no visible progress advancing in Ukraine, despite constant attacks: try squinting, try squinting hard, and you will still have difficulty finding clear progress, let alone significant progress.

The one exception where there is easily visible progress? Inside Russia, in the Kursk Oblast that Ukraine boldly partially occupied to great effect beginning in June, 2024.

If Russia’s only easily visible territorial progress in an imperialist, colonialist attempted conquest of Ukraine that is trying to genocidally erase Ukrainian identity over the course of six months is to retake some of Russia’s own territory (after it was mortifyingly occupied for some ten months and was only liberated with the help of thousands of North Korean—North Korean—troops!), it’s impossible to credibly claim Russia is “winning,” let alone that Ukraine is “losing.”

Last time I checked, a defender successfully defending most of its territory from enemy advances means the defender is, actually, winning (for all you Risk board game players, think the tie-goes-to-the-defender rule)…

I plan to elaborate on some of the details of what’s been going on, but for now, take a look at that stark picture of failure on the part of Russia that is also a portrait of dogged Ukrainian determination and perseverance and it is clear which narratives are backed by reality and which are not.

Add to all this that over five of the six months were under a fascist Trump Administration that was and still is hostile to Ukraine, favors Russia narratively and diplomatically, and had criticized, redirected, “paused,” and/or ended major aspects of U.S. aid to Ukraine, and it is even more embarrassing that Russia has failed to advance when it should have been able to. In fact, think of a major war where a major backer—one of the world’s most powerful nations—of the weaker defender pulls much of its support for that defender against a far stronger attacker—also one of the world’s most powerful nations—and it is harder to find examples in history where such an attacker was unable to capitalize on the rug being pulled out from under the defender (and this even was after Republicans in Congress had cut off aid for much of 2023-2024).

But here we are, Putin’s Russia even more laughably pathetic than ever (and this says a lot) and increasingly unable to defend its own territory, often mostly only able to pathetically and indiscriminately target civilian areas with war-criminal, Hamas-like area bombardments and far less able to actually hit Ukraine’s military.

And oh, we haven’t even gotten into the historic, amazing, and devastating June 1^st special operation by Ukraine that has disabled or destroyed as much as some one-third of the Russian aircraft capable of wielding nuclear weapons.

I think you can say Ukraine is winning, all things considered, but more on this another time…

Kursk-Belgorod Operation: Ukraine’s Transformational Ace Up Its Sleeve

Brian E. Frydenborg — Sun, 11 Aug 2024 09:23:22 +0000

The relative inactivity post-U.S. aid package passing was partly a given, as Ukraine would obviously need some time to receive and distribute the U.S. aid. But for those wondering what Ukraine was planning and had up its sleeve, this Kursk operation might just give us a clue to the larger military intentions of Ukraine.

(Russian/Русский перевод coming soon; Если вы состоите в российской армии и хотите сдаться Украине, звоните по этим номерам: +38 066 580 34 98 или +38 093 119 29 84; инструкции по сдаче здесь)

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) August 11, 2024; see my related August 15 Twitter thread on the Kursk operation, what led to it, & its importance; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion.

Estimates of Ukrainian-held territory, evening August 10-Malcontent News/Twitter

SILVER SPRING—I know it has been some time since I have written about Ukraine, with personal reasons having played a role in this, including losing a Democratic U.S. Senate primary campaign in Maryland (but hey, I came in 5^th out of 10 candidates in my first race ever against some opponents with a lot more staff, much more money, and far deeper roots in the state, but now make sure you support winner Angela Alsobrooks in the fall!). But aside from my own personal hectic situation, the fact is that compared to the previous massive Ukrainian counterattacks, previous smaller Ukrainian-supported Russian rebel incursions into Russia, spectacular victories of Ukraine against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s ill-fated rebellion against the Kremlin, and Russia’s suicidal Pyrrhic “victories,” very little exciting large-scale developments have happened until this thus-far successful operation in Russia being conducted by Ukraine. Of course, there have been the standard war-criminal barbarity of the Russians in targeting and massacring Ukrainian civilians throughout this period in addition to the standard smaller-scale Russian offenses by a Russian military incapable of sustaining large-scale offensives, offensives that made mild-to-no progress while Ukraine was running out of ammunition and Republicans under Trump’s sway were holding up Ukrainian aid—a telling fact that displays Russia’s impotence as it was unable to do more when Ukraine was at its weakest.

Setting Up This New Counteroffensive

But now that that massive aid package finally passed in late April some three-and-a-half months ago, many including myself were wondering how soon how much of that $61 billion in U.S. aid would be disbursed and how soon that could allow Ukraine to be in a position to launch a major successful counteroffensive.

Having received billions of dollars in aid from the U.S. and other allies, we have now seen the beginning of what can hardly be called a minor incursion into Russia, not of Ukrainian-allied-and-supported Russian rebel units—the Russian Volunteer Corps (R.D.K.) and the Free Russia Legion (also translated as the Freedom of Russia Legion or Liberty of Russia Legion) that raided Russia earlier—but of actual Ukrainian forces themselves. For ground combat, this is the most Ukraine has taken the actual fight to the Russians’ actual home territory and it is unprecedented and an utter humiliation for Russia and Putin (Putin’s face in this clip speaks volumes). Even earlier, the fact that this was being undertaken by Ukrainian, and not Russian rebel units, suggested that this is was likely going to be much more than a raid, could even be a major operation. Now, it is obvious that this is a major operation involving many Ukrainian troops. And the beauty of all this is that this could very much be the beginning of a dramatically different phase of the war that could very well transform it.

How so? I wrote well over a year ago, after a series of dramatic raids by the aforementioned Russian rebels into Russia and Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russia hitting Russian bases and even Moscow itself, that such operations had the potential to cause Russia to dramatically drain its combat power and strength from the front lines in Ukraine and that this, in turn, would leave Russia very vulnerable to massive Ukrainian counterattacks.

Well, we can think of what we saw before with the Russian rebel forces as mini-preview versions of what we are seeing now, providing a lot of intelligence on the borderlands on the Russian side. And, as I have noted before, Ukraine—unlike Russia—values the lives of its troops and does not try to rush its operations but puts a lot of effort into planning, exercising prudence. So it prepared on its own timetable, meticulously, and patiently, and we can be certain that Ukraine has put a tremendous amount of time and effort into planning what is now unfolding.

And that is why it is unfolding so well for Ukraine right now.

Kursk Crumbling!

For what is unfolding is the most spectacular, impressive development in a long time, with Ukraine taking more Russian territory in days than Russia has taken as far as Ukrainian territory in months. Or, Russia has lost far more of its own territory in just a few days than Ukraine has lost in terms of its own territory in months, if you prefer. To quantify this, we’re talking roughly between 500-850 km², and that is almost certainly outdated and smaller than where things are currently as Ukraine and those posting publicly about this siding with Ukraine are exceptionally careful about operations security, or OPSEC (in contrast to Russian OPSEC, which is abysmal in general and specifically so in Kursk at the moment).

What we are seeing now in Ukraine is not raid, then, but a major effort to take and intend to hold and be able to hold Russian territory. If the raids from before showed Russia was not able to effectively defend its own territory from potential attack and, that like its positions in Ukraine, it had no layered defense in depth in its own territory, the current operation is the realization of that potential, with disastrous consequences for Russia. Indeed, Ukraine has taken a significant amount of territory in Russia’s Kursk Oblast—well-known in the hearts of Russians as the site of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany during World War II from July-August 1943 in the largest tank battle in the history of the world and including today—and has also begun to advance into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, long staging areas for Russian attacks on Ukaine. But now the tables have turned, and turned dramatically and suddenly as Ukraine outmaneuvers Russia inside Russia again and again in recent days.

And let’s be clear, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and his regime have been absolutely embarrassed, it being clear that Russia’s military was incapable both of anticipating the Ukrainian invasion and of putting together a competent defense for its early phase: even Russian military bloggers (“milbloggers”) are openly acknowledging this. There is even a hilarious “Belgorod People’s Republic” Twitter account that is trolling Russia on a next level. Things are unfolding as rapidly as the great Ukrainian counteroffensives earlier in the war, except this one is inside Russian territory.

Why should this operation be transformational for this war? Because Ukraine is attacking in force inside Russia with high quality troops and high-quality, NATO-level equipment, and Russian security forces and military left behind in Russia are generally not of high-quality (often very poorly-trained green conscripts), nor well equipped: the most seasoned troops with the “better” Russian equipment (“best” is really too strong) are spread throughout the frontline in Ukraine and there are not even that many: most troops in Ukraine at this point in the war, after so many Russian casualties and so much Russian equipment destroyed, are poorly-trained and with outdated equipment (Russia is literally throwing T-62M tanks at the Ukrainians in Kursk Oblast, tanks that are 1983 upgrades of a 1961 tank that was itself an upgrade of a 1958 model, all while Ukraine takes far better care of its equipment than Russia). This means that Putin is going to have to remove large numbers of better troops and better equipment from the front lines in Ukraine, and this means there will almost certainly be collapses of the Russian lines in Ukraine. Already, the number of Russian attacks in Ukraine are declining dramatically because of Ukraine’s Kursk invasion as Russia withdraws troops from Ukraine to face the threat in Kursk. It’s basic math, as I have noted before.

And the choice for Putin is clear: cannibalize key parts of the Russian lines in Ukraine, almost certainly leading to major Ukrainian breakthroughs there, or allow Ukraine to occupy, control, and demilitarize large swathes of Russia on Ukraine’s border. Because as it stands now, Ukraine has smashed through the rear support lines of the Russian right flank of the entire war effort and will be able to threaten and roll up a large chunk of the Russian line in the north of Ukraine unless a dramatic redeployment of Russian troops from those Ukrainian lines occurs. Again, simple math. And Russia will have to keep a closer eye on other border areas, too, further diverting resources from the front lines in Ukraine. So make no doubt about it, this is the weakest Putin has been since Prigozhin was approaching the gates of Moscow, but unlike with the late Prigozhin, Putin has no way to manipulate the Ukrainians into to giving up their march into Russia without major concessions Putin would be unwilling to entertain and the Ukrainians are in a prime position to do massive damage to both the whole Russian military position in Ukraine as well as the ability of Russia to even use these border regions to stage any further military operations against Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine Railroading Russia

Red represents Russian fortifications/trenches, black rail lines, yellow Ukrainian-held territory inside Russia-Intelschizo/Twitter, estimates as of afternoon of August 9 Ukraine time

If you think I am exaggerating, I am not. And for this next section, I would like to thank Trent Telenko and Intelschizo from Twitter for much of what I will explain here (not that I always accept everything from any particular account, but really appreciated what I cite here). Russia’s land forces—“more so than any other military”—are highly dependent on its rail network to supply their troops and move them and their equipment. And one of the main Russia rail lines supporting the war for a large part of the front line—the Lgov-Belgorod Line—has now been severed during this operations and is partly under Ukrainian control along with the Lgov-Vorozbha line, to the point that they have taken over and will be able to use Russia’s own rail lines to rapidly move in its own heavy equipment into the area. Ukraine is already in a strong position and will be dug in with excellent fields of fire, controlling the heights in the area and using those heights to dominate the roads that operate in between and around this high ground, creating ideal kills zones and already making it hard for Russia to reinforce or counterattack. This means Ukraine is establishing a solid bridgehead into Kursk Oblast around the key crossroads town of Sudzha, which contains one of Russia’s major operational natural gas line Gazprom metering stations for Europe, with nearly half of Russia’s gas exports to Europe passing by pipeline through Sudzha in 2023. Protecting this bridgehead, among other defenses, is a solid buffer zone where Ukraine’s drones can easily monitor and hit enemy targets.

As a result, we even have multiple examples of cheap Ukrainian drones taking out Russian military helicopters midflight and Ukraine has already inflicted heavy casualties on the disorganized Russian defenders, even taking many Russian personnel as prisoners. Also, a major Ukrainian drone attack pretty much destroyed a nearby Russian military airbase in Lipetsk, making lack of air support a real issue for the Russians, and Ukraine is also already hitting neighboring Voronezh Oblast with drone strikes.

The other main rail line Russia might have used nearby, the Oryol Line, has already been well-targeted by Ukraine and is unusable, so, essentially, what has happened is that Ukraine has or is just on the cusp of making it impossible for Russia to send supplies, troops, or equipment by rail from Moscow and the rest of the north to the frontline without going far, far out of its way by using other circuitous rail lines that will severely delay any attempt to move anything from there to the front. Resupplying and reinforcing using rail lines from the east, Russia is facing dramatically less effective, far longer logistical routes that will make the Russian army’s already miserable logistics situation far more miserable. And a lot of these rail lines will be susceptible to further sabotage and attacks and will also likely suffer from overuse and maintenance issues as Russia panics in response to Ukrainian offensive operations going deeper into Russia. And those troops will be exhausted when they finally arrive and subject to Ukrainian attacks while en route.

What all this means is Russia is in a lot of trouble not just in Ukraine but also in Russia. And I don’t just mean militarily: as I have noted in the past before Prigozhin’s rebellion, which I essentially predicted, and as I noted with Prigozhin’s rebellion how that would plant mental seeds of further rebellion, such failures in the past in Russian history have provoked rebellion and revolution inside Russian history, including defections of whole military units. If things collapse rapidly for Russia inside Russia and Ukraine in the coming weeks and months, I would not be surprised if sizable Russian military formations defect in whole and rapidly march on Moscow to overthrow Putin. Again, I am not saying this will definitely happen specifically because of this operation or soon, but I would not be surprised and have noted this possibility for some time (and do see Putin’s downfall coming at some point as a consequence of this disastrously and pathetically mismanaged war of colonialist imperialism). Russians’ confidence in Putin has already been shattered time and time again as the reality of this war consistently keeps piercing Putin’s propaganda bubble, from Russia’s insanely high casualties to the sinking of the Black Sea flagship the Moskva, but significant amounts of actual Russian territory being taken and occupied by Ukraine and used to stage further attacks deeper inside Russia is a whole other level of undeniable failure, failure that falls squarely on Putin and the people he has personally chosen to run this failing war.

Russia, Still Screwed and Now More Screwed

Even if there aren’t internal revolts against the Kremlin in the coming weeks and months, Russia’s military situation is just terrible now to an even higher degree with these most recent developments. For, as I noted before, if Russia could barely advance against Ukraine when it was running out of ammunition while Republicans pushed by Trump shamefully blocked Biden Administration aid to Ukraine, it was only going to get worse for Russia once that aid started flowing from the U.S. again, and now, three-and-a-half months later, it’s certainly getting worse for Russia and is only now going to get dramatically worse for Russia after the events of the past few days.

Brian’s Ukraine analysis has been praised by: Mykhailo Podolyak, a top advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky; the Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces; Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, U.S. Army (Ret.), former commanding general, U.S. Army Europe; Scott Shane, two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist formerly of The New York Times & Baltimore Sun (and featured in HBO’s The Wire, playing himself); Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL), one of the only Republicans to stand up to Trump and member of the January 6th Committee; and Orwell Prize-winning journalist Jenni Russell, among others.

See all Brian’s Ukraine coverage here

Sad Realities but Plenty of Reason to Hope As Russia’s Escalatory Ukraine Invasion Enters Third Year

Brian E. Frydenborg — Fri, 23 Feb 2024 21:39:00 +0000

The U.S. was Ukraine’s strongest ally until Trump MAGA Republicans began blocking aid, resulting in Ukraine struggling in ways not seen for some time, but don’t bet against Ukraine just yet: my long-overdue Ukraine update

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, Threads @bfchugginalong, LinkedIn, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content) February 23, 2024; *Update in evening: more downed Russian aircraft; *update August 15, 2024: Earlier in February 2024, Ukraine clarified that its numbers for Russian military casualties included wounded as earlier use of the term liquidated led many to believe the running total given included only killed and not wounded; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. Also, Brian is running for U.S. Senate for Maryland and you can learn about his campaign here.

A Ukrainian serviceman arrives severely wounded to an evacuation point after being removed from Avdiivka following Russian force’s seizure of the long-fought over city, Feb. 20, 2024. NARCISO CONTRERAS/ANADOLU/GETTY

SILVER SPRING—Regardless of how well one side is performing or another, the loss of life and destruction in Ukraine during the past two years of Putin’s imperialist war against our ally Ukraine has been horrific for all: tens of thousands of Ukrainian children have been taken as hostages by Russia into Russia and Ukrainian civilians and members of both the Russian and Ukrainian militaries are dying. Yet far more Russians military personnel have been killed and wounded* by the Ukrainian military than the reverse (according to Ukraine’s numbers, which I have argued should be seen as quite reliable, over 408,000 Russian military and wounded* killed since February 24, 2022 as of February 23, 2024).

Yet even now, despite two years of massive embarrassment for Putin, Russia, and the Russian military, Putin shows no sign of being deterred from using that ever-so-dysfunctional military force to dismember and bend Ukraine to its will. If anything, the U.S. failure to keep sending aid has given him and Russia a sense of hope that they can outlast the U.S. and the West, especially if insurrectionist Donald Trump and his MAGA Republican allies can keep blocking additional aid to Ukraine or even prevail in the 2024 elections.

leedrake5/GitHub

The Asinine Politics of Aid

The U.S. aid already given is very tiny part of the overall U.S. budget: total U.S. aid since just before Russia’s late February 2022 scalation so far has been roughly $74.3 billion and the U.S. budget for FY 2023 was $6.13 trillion, so Ukraine aid only represents just over 1.2% of the budget but keep in mind that is aid over the course of two years, so divided in half to represent a one year’s aid that is only about 0.6% of the 2023 budget. This all costs less than many, many other programs do each year, has paid for itself and then some by far, absolutely serves vital U.S. interests, and is greatly degrading the power and influence of the current largest threat to international stability, order, and Western democracy itself, Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The current proposed additional aid invests by far most of the money back into the U.S., too.

In contrast, Russia overspent its target on defense for 2023—about an entire third of its budget—and is slated to spend about 40% of its budget on defense and security in 2024!

Abandoning Ukraine and allowing Russia to de facto control and annex parts of Ukraine’s territory, to keep Ukraine bogged down in war and terror, and to threaten the entire security of eastern Europe would undermine and jeopardize three-quarters of a century of U.S. policy in Europe, successfully built upon the ashes of World War II, nation by nation, new NATO member accession by new NATO member accession. And NATO and other U.S.-led global alliances have, without question, presided over the most peaceful era in world history since the Pax Romana nearly two millennia ago. Not just for reasons of national interest, though, but for deeper reasons I have articulated before, Ukraine absolutely deserves our aid.

Ukraine doesn’t have to be perfect—no country ever is and no war ever has been perfectly run, from Alexander’s war on Persia to the Allies’ war on Hitler’s Greater Nazi Reich—to merit further aid from the U.S. Mistakes will be made—goodness knows Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive plans were far too ambitious and overextended Ukraine’s offensive potential against U.S. recommendations—but Ukraine’s track record in the two years since February 24, 2022, has been amazing by any historical standard and would be amazing against any larger, more powerful opponent, let alone Vladimir’s Putin’s Russia today. And, as an ally, for one-year-and-a-half, America’s track record on aid to Ukraine through the Biden Administration has been amazing by any historical standard: in world history, only America’s own Lend-Lease from World War II stands as comparable.

Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. Hark Hertling—the man with my top account to follow on Ukraine—called it perfectly: for roughly 18 months, we supported Ukraine and thwarted Russia’s objectives in invading Ukraine. And then, for roughly the past half year, we let our aid run out and failed to authorize new aid, leaving Ukraine in a lurch as it ran out of ammunition and suffered more casualties and reverses as a result, the most significant visible result of this the Ukrainian withdrawal from the small city of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

But to put it more accurately and specifically, Republicans in Congress under the not so-subtle influence of insurrectionist Donald Trump—blocking wartime aid for Ukraine for political reasons again, the last time rightfully leading to his first impeachment—and his fascist MAGA movement that have overtly aligned with fascist Putin’s Russia (I do not use that term “fascist” lightly) have been blocking aid for months. And yes, the Trumpist-Putinist bromance is real, has been for years, and is very much ongoing.

Thankfully if very belatedly, though, aid was finally passed in the Senate with 22 Republican Senators—including Minority Leader Mitch McConnell—joining nearly every Democrat to pass earlier this month a massive foreign aid package, including some $60 billion for Ukraine, but the MAGA pressure on Republicans in the House is still very real and prevalent as Christian extremist Speaker Mike Johnson has decided to follow Trump’s lead by continuing to refuse to bring the bill up for an up-and-down vote.

Why U.S. Aid Will Put Ukraine Back in the Driver’s Seat

Much of the conventional wisdom is that Ukraine has been in a stalemate for some time, but I argued months ago against this on the basis that Ukraine was continuing to inflict significant casualties on Russia’s Air Force and Navy as well as on the Russian Army even if not a lot of territory was changing hands. I still feel that is the case and that Ukraine is winning a war of attrition and I still doubt Russia’s ability to take and hold any large new swathes of Ukrainian territory, but Ukraine is currently at its worst position since the Russians were at the gates of Kyiv (to be clear, this is far, far less bad than then, part of the reason why I still think dynamics have been favoring Ukraine and still can over time). But it does seem that Ukraine is now exhausted to without resupply by the U.S. to the point that is might have to fall back on multiple fronts if something does not change—in the words of Gen. Hertling, an “inflection point.”

So, just to be clear, America has been failing Ukraine for months because of Trump MAGA Republicans in Congress, especially now the House under Mike Johnson. And the result has been higher Ukrainian casualties, a stalling of Ukraine’s progress on land and even setbacks, such as the fall of Avdiivka, concurrent with a minor resurgence in Russian offensive capabilities (and it is just minor). But if U.S. aid is still withheld in the coming months, all these trends could increase to the point of reducing Ukraine’s ability to keep inflicting large numbers of casualties and thus create a genuine stalemate, or even to have Ukraine be slightly losing overall.

But even in the current context, Ukraine is not losing! In most cases, Ukraine is still holding Russia at bay and is still inflicting horrific casualties on Russia. In just the past week over a five day period, Ukraine has inflicted more combat aircraft losses—seven—on Russia than the U.S. has experienced in decades (*Evening UPDATE: as if to prove my point, just today Russia has apparently lost an incredibly expensive and rare A-50U advanced surveillance aircraft, an Su-34 fighter-bomber, and possibly even an IL-22M command plane, making that 9-10 aircraft losses in little over a week!) and inflicted more combat naval losses in the first half of this month on Russia than the U.S. has experienced in decades (hell, Ukraine barely even has a navy, yet has destroyed a third of the major vessels Russia’s Black Sea Fleet: embarrassingly, Russia cannot defend its navy, something I have called since the early months of this war). And that does not even touch on the terrible losses on land suffered by the Russians. That all sure isn’t losing for Ukraine, that’s still winning in what has become a war of attrition, but it doesn’t feel like that, not for the world, and not for Ukrainians, and momentum could swing in Russia’s direction and may be beginning to do so in the absence of further U.S. aid.

Conversely, Ukrainians could be winning so much more with steady U.S. support. Imagine how well Ukraine can do with a lot more U.S. aid when it has been running on fumes for these recent months and still has mostly held off Russia’s attacks while also still inflicting massive casualties on Russia, which also treats its own troops barbarically. After all, in the end, Russian troops are in a foreign land where they are simply not wanted and where most of the locals are willing to die and take even more of them per Ukrainian to make that point (according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, seven Russians were killed per Ukrainian killed at Avdiivka, but that was said before apparent executions of captured Ukrainian soldiers after Ukraine’s withdrawal from there; still, Avdiivka was clearly a Pyrrhic Russian victory). Given Russia’s widely visible deficiencies that I and many others have discussed at length, Russia will not be able to take over all of Ukraine and impose its will through installing a new puppet government. And yes, while U.S. aid was coming in strong last year, Ukraine opted for an overambitious offensive strategy that spread its offensive capability too thinly and focused on some of Russia’s most heavily fortified positions contrary to U.S. advice—a planning oversight that resulted in just modest, incremental gains on the ground and led in part to the overall stellar Gen. Valery Zaluzhny being removed from overall military command earlier this month by Zelensky, all that does not mean that another, even larger round of U.S. aid will not yield far better results. In fact, with new leadership running the military led by Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky and Ukraine’s versatility and adaptability, I would expect a new counteroffensive that would start being concocted while new U.S. aid was flowing in robustly would succeed where the last one did not and would likely focus where Russian defenses are weakest, in the south near Kherson, as I have been hoping would happen for some time. A major thrust on the Kherson front would be able to bypass and threaten from the rear or outflank many of Russia’s most heavily fortified lines in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk, dramatically altering the dynamics from the way the fighting has unfolded for most of 2023. And Zelensky is already indicating this may very well be the case, or at least that the south is now going to be the main objective in the next offensive; such an offensive could even threaten Russia’s occupation of Crimea.

And while the lack of territorial gains from Ukraine’s 2023 counteroffensive did get a lot of attention, the fact that the entire time Ukraine was striking deep behind enemy lines and hollowing and thinning out Russian forces and defenses from Crimea to the Donbas did not get as much attention (even if strikes inside Russia did). This destruction wreaked on Russian forces, bases, air defenses, equipment, and supply lines still has yet to bear full fruit but will when there is finally another successful Ukrainian counteroffensive and the heaviest frontline defenses of Russia are breached. Then, the middle and rear Russian positions far from the current fronts will collapse more quickly than many imagine they will because of the cumulative effects described above.

The House Can Pass that Aid and Ukraine Can Still Win

Having suffered from mistakes and now being left in the lurch by MAGA Republicans in Congress, Ukrainian planners will do much better once they start receiving U.S. aid again. And I am confident that at the least Democrats in the House will get enough House Republicans (I think even more after Putin’s killing, directly or indirectly, of the prime Russian dissident, Alexei Navalny; major new sanctions on Russia in response were just announced today by Biden) to enact a rare discharge petition procedure and force a vote on the floor of the House on the Ukraine aid bill, which should result in the bill passing soon after the House returns from the ill-timed vacation Speaker Johnson sent it on.

Over the course of months of waiting for U.S. aid, Ukraine has still inflicted punishing losses on Russia—including expensive fighter jets and naval vessels—while only losing small amounts of territory and one small city. Ukraine is more than capable of winning this war, and with a steady resumption of U.S. aid, it will. Putin’s main audience targets with his farcical interview with Tucker Carlson were voters in America gullible enough to take anything he says at face value: more than missiles from Iran or artillery rounds from North Korea, Putin needs MAGA Republicans to be able to block U.S. aid in Congress to “win” this war, and the reelection of insurrectionist Trump as president would not only weaken American democracy perhaps fatally, it could mean a U.S. exit from NATO, not just an end to support for Ukraine, making Europe even more vulnerable to Russian aggression.

A win for Biden and enough Democrats in Congress to thwart MAGA Republicans who have an affinity for Putin and Russia, conversely, mean Russia will lose the Ukraine war and lose badly, Putin likely falling from power at some point as a consequence. But very key now will be getting new U.S. aid to Ukraine so Ukraine can try again and find more success on the offensive. All this is very possible, even quite likely, should that U.S. aid start flowing and there is every reason to be confident that a Ukraine brimming with $60 billion in a new aid, ammunition, weapons, and equipment can surprise us all again and eventually push Russian forces back into Russia, liberating every square inch of its territory.

Indeed, in many ways, the fates of Biden, Zelensky, Democrats, and Ukraine on one side are tied to each other in the way the fates Putin, insurrectionist Trump, MAGA Republicans, and Russia on another side are tied to each other, but I still believe that democracy will triumph over fascism and that Ukraine, Zelensky, and Biden will triumph together over Russia, Putin, and Trump.

See all Brian’s Ukraine coverage here

The Real Context News Podcast #12: Rula Jebreal—Palestinian Journalist, Analyst, & Author—on Palestine and Israel

Brian E. Frydenborg — Sun, 07 Jan 2024 01:55:57 +0000

By Brian E. Frydenborg (LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter @bfry1981, YouTube) January 6, 2024 (recorded December 29, 2023 intro/conclusion recorded January 5, 2024); see Brian’s other coverage the Israel-Hamas war here; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. Also, Brian is running for U.S. Senate for Maryland and you can learn about his campaign here.

Twelfth episode on Palestine and Israel—history as well as the current violence—with Palestinian Journalist, Analyst, & Author Rula Jebreal (follow her on Twitter and Instagram and check out her Muck Rack profile here)

Even before October 7, Palestinians and Gazans in particular had been suffering from 3/4s of a century of displacement and oppression. Then, Hamas carried out the most most lethal attack against Jews since the Holocaust, killing some 1,200 Israelis who were mostly civilians and captured some 240 Israelis who Hamas took as hostages into the Gaza Strip. Israel’s reaction was to cut off nearly all supplies to the Gaza Strip, the enclave blocked and partly controlled by Israel that Hamas partly governs, and to launch the most intense military assault anywhere in decades. That history and the current assault are among the topics we discuss.

Rula is uniquely qualified to talk about this history: she has lived it. Born to an African Imam father who worked the Al-Aqsa compound in Jerusalem’s Old City and a Palestinian mother, Rula lost her mother at 5 and her father gave her to an orphanage in East Jerusalem, and the remarkable woman who founded and ran the orphanage became a mother to Rula, who raised her as a Palestinian. Rula’s novel Miral tells the story of several generations of these women living through the tumultuous history of Israel and Palestine and was turned into a movie starring Freida Pinto, Willem Dafoe, and Vanessa Redgrave, the screenplay of which Rula wrote. She holds Israeli citizenship as well as Italian citizenship, as Italy was where lived and worked as a journalist for many years. Her journalism and analysis has taken her around the world, into war zones and the studios of some of the major news networks around the world. On top of all these achievements, she is also a college professor in Miami. The following is my discussion with her.

Notes:

Rula’s novel Miral and the movie based on it

Since I mentioned her unique Vogue profile and photoshoot shot by the legendary Annie Leibovitz:

Rula Jebreal shot for Vogue by Annie Leibovitz

Some of Rula’s coverage of the current situation:

CNN interview

Washington Post interview also featuring major Israeli opposition politician and former Foreign Minister and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni

France24 interview

Rula on the issues prior to Oct 7:

The awesome video of Ben Shapiro being trounced by Rula

Her New York Times op-ed on being a minority in Israel

Yahoo News profile of Rula

New York Times profile of Rula

Rula on the rise of global fascism on MSNBC

and my take on the same

My article on Israeli vs. American COIN (counterinsurgency)

My take on Israel’s apartheid system in the West Bank

My deep-dive on the 2014 Gaza war and the history of the conflict

The HBO and Israeli Channel 12 miniseries Our Boys I mentioned that highlights the Jewish anti-Palestinian incitement in Israeli society and based on true events from 2014 is discussed here in Time and in The New York Times in the context of Netanyahu accusing it of being “anti-Semitic;” more coverage of the miniseries in The New Yorker and The New York Times; reviews from Variety and CNN

DONATE TO HELP THE PEOPLE OF PALESTINE AND ISRAEL

Palestine Red Crescent Society is basically the Red Cross in Gaza and the rest of Palestine.

IsraAID is Israel’s largest humanitarian organization.

Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF), a deeply experienced organization, has provided emergency medical services for people in Gaza for many years.

The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) is the UN agency specifically tasked with helping Palestinians. Several of its aid workers have already been killed in the current round of violence.

The American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee is one of the largest Jewish-focused philanthropic organizations in the world and is helping Israelis on the ground.

Save the Children is one of the premier international aid organizations and has long-operated in Gaza.

Consider donating if you appreciate this content. Also see Brian’s deep-dive on the 2014 Israel-Hamas war.

Feel free to share and repost this article on LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter. If you think your site or another would be a good place for this or would like to have Brian generate content for you, your site, or your organization, please do not hesitate to reach out to him!

The Real Context News Podcast #10: Journalist Noga Tarnopolsky on Israel’s 2 Wars: One vs. Hamas & One vs. Netanyahu

Brian E. Frydenborg — Tue, 26 Dec 2023 08:25:09 +0000

By Brian E. Frydenborg (LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter @bfry1981, YouTube) December 26, 2023 (recorded December 17, intro/conclusion recorded December 25); see Brian’s other coverage the Israel-Hamas war here; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. Also, Brian is running for U.S. Senate for Maryland and you can learn about his campaign here.

Tenth episode on Israel’s two wars, one vs. Hamas, one vs. Netanyahu, with independent journalist Noga Tarnopolsky (follow her on Twitter and Instagram and check out her Muck Rack profile here) (Apologize for my low lighting ,will address this for the next episode.

Even before October 7, Israel was facing a historic crisis, a self-inflicted deep wound from its own governing coalition led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Then, Hamas carried out the most most lethal attack against Jews since the Holocaust, killing some 1,200 Israelis who were mostly civilians and captured some 240 Israelis who Hamas took as hostages into the Gaza Strip. Israel’s reaction was to cut off nearly all supplies to the Gaza Strip, the enclave blocked and partly controlled by Israel that Hamas partly governs, and to launch the most intense military assault anywhere in decades. Noga is uniquely qualified to talk about both Israel’s domestic crisis as well as the war against Hamas, seeing each as a war yet both becoming more and more intertwined. The following is my discussion with her.

Notes

On the IDF’s killing of 3 Israeli hostages…

Some of Noga’s coverage of the war on MSNBC (examples here and here), New York Magazine (examples here and here), The Washington Post (examples here and here), and France 24, just to name a few.

Some of Noga’s work on the Israeli protest movement against Netanyahu’s parliamentary coup against Israel’s judiciary and checks and balances in Israel: Politico, The Washington Post, Rolling Stone, just to name a few.

DONATE TO HELP THE PEOPLE OF PALESTINE AND ISRAEL

Palestine Red Crescent Society is basically the Red Cross in Gaza and the rest of Palestine.

IsraAID is Israel’s largest humanitarian organization.

Médecins Sans Frontières/Doctors Without Borders (MSF), a deeply experienced organization, has provided emergency medical services for people in Gaza for many years.

The American Jewish Joint Distribution Committee is one of the largest Jewish-focused philanthropic organizations in the world and is helping Israelis on the ground.

Save the Children is one of the premier international aid organizations and has long-operated in Gaza.

Consider donating if you appreciate this content. Also see Brian’s deep-dive on the 2014 Israel-Hamas war.

The Geopolitics, Politics, and Military Realities of the Past Year of U.S. Arms Transfers, Sales, and Authorizations to Taiwan

Brian E. Frydenborg — Sun, 29 Oct 2023 18:04:16 +0000

October 29, 2023 Brian E. Frydenborg

A Special Commissioned Report of Real Context News Intelligence (PDF version here)

by Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content, my Linktree with all his public links/profiles); contact Brian with your own requests about any topic to have your own custom reports produced

August 29, 2023

1. Some Context of the U.S. Relationships with Taiwan and China

Unlike arms sales to all other foreign “entities” (a term used in large part because Taiwan receives much in U.S. arms sales but is not formally recognized as a an independent country by the U.S.), arms sales to Taiwan are uniquely not covered by The Foreign Assistance Act (FAA) of 1961 and The Arms Export Control Act (AECA) of 1976, most of those handled through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program—in which the U.S. acts as an intermediary between vendors and foreign recipients and handles the sale and delivery of entire weapons systems and full support packages—and Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) licenses—in which U.S. vendors sell directly to foreign recipients. There are some other less common options, such as coming from existing Department of Defense stockpiles through Excess Defense Articles (EDA) provisions and Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), the latter increasingly common in the current emergency climate and available to FMS-eligible entities. But all Taiwan arms sales are regulated by the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, which explicitly states that “the United States will make available to Taiwan such defense articles and defense services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability” and restricts the factors that can play into the decision-making process of what to send Taiwan and when: “The President and the Congress shall determine the nature and quantity of such defense articles and services based solely upon their judgment of the needs of Taiwan, in accordance with procedures established by law” (emphasis added).[1]

All this means that Taiwan is a special case when it comes to U.S. arms sales.

And the reasons for this are easy to understand: China is essentially the second most powerful nation on earth, thus overtly recognizing Taiwan as a fully independent, separate legal state from China could carry severe consequences.[2] As the last bastion of World War II-U.S.-ally Nationalist China, Taiwan held onto China’s seat on the United Nations Security Council even after it lost the Chinese Civil War in 1949, as the U.S. did not recognize the Chinese Communist Party-led People’s Republic of China’s government in Beijing, but the Nationalist government in Taipei, Taiwan, as the legitimate Chinese government. But in the wake of The United Nations General Assembly installing the People’s Republic of China in China’s United Nations seats in the General Assembly and the Security Council in 1971 and around the time of Nixon’s breakthrough visit to Mao’s China in 1972, what would become known as the “one China” policy would emerge and come to be official U.S. policy of the Nixon Administration and every administration since.[3] Following the emergence of that policy, the Carter Administration began to lay the groundwork in 1978 for formal U.S. diplomatic recognition of the Communist People’s Republic of China as “China” in place of Taiwan on January 1, 1979.[4] In response, Congress passed the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) later in 1979 to assure Taiwan that while it was recognizing the communist mainland Chinese government, it was not abandoning Taiwan and would empower the government in Taipei to defend itself from a military takeover at the hands of the government in Beijing with “defense articles and defense services” (e.g., arms). After a bit of wrangling, during the summer of 1982, the Reagan Administration would broaden and deepen the general “one-China” framework to include six general “assurances”:

In relation to specific language from an earlier Reagan Administration communique the same year stating a vague plan to eventually reduce and end arms sales to Taiwan with the culmination of a “peaceful,” “final resolution” between Beijing and Taipei, it was stated that the U.S. had not agreed to set any specific date for ending arms sales to Taiwan.
The U.S. had not agreed to consult the government in Beijing on any of these arms sales to the government in Taipei.
The U.S. would not attempt to play any mediating role between Beijing and Taipei.
The U.S. had not agreed to revise the TRA.
The deliberately ambiguous assertion that U.S. had not changed its stance on sovereignty over Taiwan.
The U.S. would not pressure the government in Taipei to negotiate with the government in Beijing.

These six assurances, the TRA, and three sets of communiques—two the circumstances of which were touched on above in 1972 (Nixon Administration) and 1978 (Carter Administration) and a third in 1982 (Reagan Administration) stating U.S. policy was to support a “peaceful reunification” between Beijing and Taipei—are what the Biden Administration regards as its and America’s main guidance for the “one China” policy, with the text of the “Six Assurances” clarified by Congress during the Obama Administration in 2016.[5]

Short of formally legally recognizing Taiwan as a fully independent country, Washington has had considerable freedom of action for decades, though as China has risen considerably in power and stature in recent years and seeks to be more assertive on the world stage, there is growing concern that, above all other issues, Taiwan may propel the U.S. and China onto a collision course resulting in war between the two most powerful countries on earth. Among the most prominent individuals who share this concern is noted scholar Graham Allison, renown for decades for his now textbook analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis; Graham’s famous analysis first appears in 1968 as a RAND Corporation paper, then in 1969 in The American Political Science Review, then in 1971 in a much-expanded book version, Essence of Decision, itself reworked in a new edition in 1999 once significant amounts of information on the event were declassified.[6]

Graham popularized what is now known as the Thucydides trap. The name of this trap refers to the fifth-century BCE ancient Greek historian Thucydides, considered the founder of the so-called “realist” international relations theory framework and who has become one of the great historians in human history for his chronicling of the great war between rising power Athens and established power Sparta (“The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Sparta, made war inevitable” [1.23]).[7] In this vein, a “Thucydides trap” refers to a situation where the rise of one power is confronted by a more established power and results in a direct war between the two powers, which Allison very much sees will be the case with China and the U.S.[8]

Not everyone is on board with the degree of concern broadcast by Allison, who is convinced war will happen unless there are “more radical changes in attitudes and actions, by leaders and publics alike, than anyone has yet imagined.”[9] While I would hardly dismiss his concerns, I find the likelihood far less: for me, it is hard to see or the U.S. or China gaining much from such a conflict but it is easy to see both losing much and their economies and, indeed, societies, are terribly intertwined even if their militaries and political systems are not.

Still, while the latest caches of arms going to Taiwan from the U.S. will hardly improve, and, indeed, will at least ostensibly harm Sino-American relations, even if there will hardly be a diplomatic break or a halting of trade, this latest arms transfers between Taiwan and the U.S. are worth looking into in some detail. But it can be confusing where to start. If a sale is announced, it may literally be years before it arrives. What about gifts that are not sales that will arrive in Taiwan far earlier than sales that happened earlier? Or financial grants for Taiwan to purchase weapons? What about training and support services? I was confused by all this myself, hence my longer-than-anticipated report on the variety of military support the U.S. is offering Taiwan, any of which could be counted among the “latest” arms or intended/future U.S. arms transfer to Taiwan.

To understand the latest transfers, it is important to understand that there are both sales and other types of assistance going to Taiwan. To start, we will begin with the sales.

2. U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan and Their Implications

The Biden Administration announced it intended to seek $1.1 billion in Foreign Military Sales of U.S. arms and support services in early September 2022. The packages announcement came at a time of heightened tension with China shortly after then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan a month earlier, which resulted in angry denunciations from Beijing and aggressive military training exercises violating Taiwanese waters and airspace, the largest military exercises in China’s history.[10] While a number or public figures condemned Pelosi’s act as irresponsibly provocative, I felt China’s reaction was more kabuki performance-theater (or xiqu, if you will) than anything else: was much ado about very little, but Chinese President Xi Jinping felt compelled to make a very public, “strong” reaction. Still, the fact that China reacted so theatrically and so symbolically (but not in any substantive, far-reaching ways) to the peaceful visit of a senior civilian legislator who was then an eighty-two-year-old woman to me hardly projected strength, but, rather, insecurity. In any event, over a year later there still have not been any far-reaching consequences from Pelosi’s visit.[11]

The more than $1.1 billion in arms was the largest yet proposed by the Biden Administration and included up to 60 anti-ship Harpoon missiles for $355 million, up to 100 Sidewinder AIM-9X Sidewinder air-to-air missiles for $85 million, and $655 million in logistical support for Taiwan’s early-warning air-defense radar surveillance systems.[12]

As Taiwan is an island China can only attack from air and sea, such a package would greatly increase the cost of any assault against Taiwan for Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and Air Force (PLAAF), to say the least. With the Japan-and-South-Korea-allied U.S. Navy protecting the waters nearby and with China having only three aircraft carriers and only several dozens or the larger types of ships (cruisers, frigates, corvettes, destroyers., and amphibious landing ships) so essential for any major amphibious assault given those U.S and its allies’ navies nearby, even after a rapid buildup, the untested navy of China’s that has not seen any combat in decades (over forty-four years ago it had a border war in 1979 that was a loss to Vietnam, besides that there was just a small skirmish since then in 1988) remains vulnerable. This is especially the case after seeing the damage that Ukraine—which barely has a navy of its own—has been able to do to the Russian Navy with relatively inexpensive anti-ship missiles (the same type as or similar to the ones the West is supplying to Taiwan) and drones, Russian vulnerability I was keen and early to point out in April, 2022.[13] That is not to say PLAN is just like the Russian Navy: the Chinese ships are far newer than Russia’s, yet have not been tested in combat. In any situation, though, the overall U.S. capabilities are far ahead of China’s, factoring the interrelated systems each can deploy (China’s larger number of ships is hardly the be all and end all), and that does not even get into how much some of the major U.S. allies in the region—especially Japan, South Korea, and to a degree France and even Australia—are also considerable naval powers in the region; even the U.K. plans to send a carrier strike group to the region soon, in 2025.[14] And do not not forget all these sales and transfer are for Taiwan itself, which is also engaging in a rapid, impressive military buildup of its own, punching far above its weight in key areas, with rough ratios of 1 to 4 in fighter aircraft (set to increase), 1 to 2 in trainer aircraft (particularly important for producing high quality pilots), and 1 to 3 in attack helicopters against a China that is just shy of sixty times more populous and with a GDP nearly 24.5 times larger![15]

After this the package announcement in September, in early December the State Department announced that it intended to allow another package with the FMS sale of $428 million in U.S. military aircraft spare parts—especially for F-16s and C-130 transports—and equipment especially as Taiwan’s military aircraft have seen heavy use with in patrolling all the aggressive Chinese military exercises nearby.[16] To me, this sends a clear signal that the China cannot expect to wear out Taiwan’s aircraft through its aggressive exercises.

That announcement was followed upon at the end of the month by another of a $180 million FMS sales package of Volcano anti-tank mine-laying systems and training, ammunition, and services for those systems.^[17] I feel this is a way of reminding China that even if it were to land troops on Taiwan, the fight would definitely continue on land at a cost to the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

2023 saw the Biden Administration begin by announcing in early March that it intended to sell 200 medium air-to-air AMRAAM missiles and 100 AGM-88B HARM ground-radar-targeting missiles in a $619 million FMS package.[18] This would bolster both offense and defense for Taiwan’s combat jets.

Another FMS sales package for over $440 million was announced late in June, including $332 million in Bushmaster autocannon 30mm ammunition for some of Taiwan’s CM-34 wheeled infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) as well as $108 million in spare parts for vehicles, small arms, and support systems and services.[19] The way I see this package, if the Volcano package was a reminder that Chinese armor may pay a price, this is a reminder that the Taiwanese infantry and their support vehicles would be well-equipped and well-supplied.

Finally, just last week, yet another FMS arms package was announced by the Biden Administration, this one $500 million to equip Taiwan F-16s with infrared search tracking systems and related spare parts and equipment.[20] This is an added reminder that Chinese aircraft may pay a dear price in any attack on Taiwan. Just days after this sales package was announced and just days ago, China responded by sending dozens of combat jets towards Taiwan, with many violating Taiwan’s airspace and causing Taiwan to scramble its own fighter jets to intercept.[21]

This year-long-period’s worth of packages worth well over $3.2 billion demonstrates to China that its forces at sea, in the air, and on land will potentially face a steep price as all three vectors are receiving substantial boosts from U.S. military arms and equipment sales to Taiwan.

3. Delays in Delivery of Sales to Taiwan

Unfortunately for Taiwan, supply-chain and manufacturing issues have led to a backlog for some $19 billion in weapons deliveries of previous U.S. arms sales packages for Taiwan—including 66 F-16s, a proportionally major increase (see above graphic), HIMARS, and some 400 Harpoon anti-ship missiles and 100 Harpoon Coastal Defense Systems—and that was before all but one arms sales packages discussed above. Ukraine is also playing a role in somewhat competing for attention with Taiwan, but it is not playing the role that some like Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) are claiming (see note 30 and discussion in IV). For the most part, the idea that FMS weapons sales to Taiwan are being affected by PDA transfers to Ukraine is a red herring: they are coming from two entirely different sources—U.S. private sector manufacturers producing orders for Taiwan and existing U.S. defense stockpiles for Ukraine, respectively, with only one recent existing stockpile PDA having been authorized for Taiwan, the first of this type for Taiwan—so they are not coming from the same pot and are therefore not in immediate competition with each other. That is why Ukraine has been able to quickly receive various weapons systems and Taiwan is facing a $19 billion backlog, as the manufacturers are suffering from a number of production and supply-chain issues but the U.S. already has its stockpiles. Indeed, before Russia’s February 2022 escalatory further invasion of Ukraine, the Taiwan arms sales delivery backlog was still a whopping $14 billion, and most of the delayed items were purchased from 2015 to 2019. As Jennifer Kavanagh and Jordan Cohen noted in War on the Rocks:

Across U.S. arms deliveries to all clients completed between 2012 and 2021, the average time between sale and delivery was about four years for air defense systems, 3.5 years for aircraft, and 2.5 years for missiles. Sometimes these delays stretch up to almost 10 years. Taiwan’s delays are in line with these figures. Notably, while clients of major U.S. adversaries like Russia and China often receive faster arms deliveries in general, they face similarly lengthy backlogs when it comes to more high-end systems.

The same authors outline a number of major reasons for this:

The U.S. industrial base has been unable to keep up with increasing demand
Defense business sector consolidation has meant a smaller number of production lines and suppliers
The supply chains are long and production methods are complex, vulnerable to geopolitical, weather, and economic disruptions
The political instability in the U.S., particularly the budgeting shenanigans that have increasingly become a reckless norm, means contract authorizations are delayed and defense-contractors are becoming more averse to long-term investment (I will add my own thoughts to this later and name the perpetrators)
We are still recovering from the issues in supply chain upheavals and production halts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic
Inefficiencies in the long process from sale to delivery are increasing because of increasing U.S. global arms sales, leading to the prioritization of bigger, more expensive systems being moved faster than some of Taiwan’s more “asymmetric” items
An outdated Department of Defense process for allocating funds for FMS is also slowing things down
Delays from export controls can even occur after the deal is done, a result of byzantine legal rules that can slow things down
(The authors also note a ninth general reason that has not that been the case with Taiwan: congressional committees can further put informal yet indefinite holds on delivery until the sitting administration addresses their concerns)

Numbers 6.) and 7.) are also affecting PDA transfers that until recently Ukraine benefited from and Taiwan did not (and number 9.) while not affecting Taiwan, is definitely affecting Turkey as Sen. Bob Mendez (D-NJ), Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has put a hold on the Biden Administration’s sale of F-16s there). As more and more PDA packages are considered for both Ukraine and Taiwan, there will be an issue of direct competition for resources from the same pot, but those have yet to truly present themselves in any significant way and that simply is not the case with the $19 billion backlog for Taiwan. There are some other bandwidth issues related to Ukraine, and those will be discussed in section IV, but those are also unrelated to Taiwan’s arms sales delivery delays. Thankfully, the Biden Administration and Congress are moving to mitigate some of these issues, including throwing substantial funding into shoring up and further developing and expanding many aspects of the industrial defense sector. Additionally, both the Department of State and Department of Defense are well aware of the problems and have announced specific plans to combat them in May and June of this year, respectively. While results generally remain to be seen, the Biden Administration has already opened and recently used the Presidential Drawdown Authority to speed up new transfers of weapons to Taiwan, and those betting against this administration when it puts its mind to something have often been objectively and severely guilty of underestimating it.[22]

4. U.S. Arms Grants, Loans, Other Military Aid for Taiwan in an Era of Political Dysfunction

There are instances when Congress authorizes acts and appropriates money for them separately. Overall, there are three types of spending in Congress: mandatory, discretionary, and interest. That last one involves interest payments on the national debt, and mandatory spending involves programs that are budgeted for in their laws establishing them (healthcare costs and social security together account for 77% of mandatory spending in 2023). But discretionary spending involves programs established by law that are not funded for in their enacting legislation and that must be funded by one of twelve separate appropriations bills put together by House and Senate Appropriations Committees and Subcommittees, but some or all of those bills are often combined into omnibus bills (defense spending accounts for nearly half of discretionary spending this year).[23] What makes this year’s non-sales Taiwan arms package interesting is that it is part of discretionary spending and there has thus far been more authorized in its enacting legislation than has been appropriated in the appropriations legislation due to a complicated debate and set of circumstances.

The Taiwan Enhanced Resilience Act (TERA), sponsored by the aforementioned Sen. Menendez, was approved by Congress as part of the the $858 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2022 and signed into law by U.S. President Joe Biden at the end of 2022.[24] TERA included up to $10 billion in grants for military purchases—up to $2 billion per year for fiscal years 2024-2027—and $2 billion per year in loans for the same over the same period. It represents the first time Title 22 Foreign Military Financing (FMF) run by the State Department is being authorized for Taiwan. The bill also authorized deeper military training and collaboration between the U.S. and Taiwan, created a regional weapons stockpile, and fast-tracks weapons disbursement to Taiwan—allowing the same type of methods being used to deliver much of the U.S. weaponry going to Ukraine that permits disbursement from existing U.S. stockpiles, in this case, up to an additional $1 billion in arms per year for Taiwan. The bill goes further to authorize the setup of a fast-track FMS method to get Taiwan arms it has purchased more rapidly than it currently receives them.[25]

As this was all discretionary spending, though, the funding was appropriated separately from the authorization in the $1.7 trillion omnibus Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023. And that bill did not include the $10 billion in grants that would come from the State Department’s FMF program. During the negotiations, the Senate leaders on the appropriations committee handling the State Department, Chairman Chris Coons (D-DE) and Ranking Member Lindsey Graham (R-SC), agreed that this large amount of $10 billion might end up coming from other duly authorized military grants and humanitarian aid programs, as the State Department’s entire funding level for FY 2023 was only set at $59.7 billion. The $2 billion per-year is no small amount, then, and other top FMF program recipients—Israel ($3.3 billion) and especially Egypt ($1.3 billion) and Jordan ($425 million) all have much lower GDPs than Israel, with Taiwan has increasing its defense spending 13.9% in 2023 to $18.3 billion. The two senators formed a strange bipartisan combination and faced other strange bedfellow sharing bipartisan concern for their bipartisan opposition to the grants, but especially with serious a serious global hunger crisis and the war in Ukraine, Coons, Graham, and others wanted to make sure other urgently needed aid is not impacted. The bill did include the $2-billion-a-year in loan offers, but Taiwan has since stated is it not interested in taking out U.S.-offered loans.[26]

But the bill with TERA has since resulted in the first of the Presidential Drawdown Authority disbursements, one worth $345 million out of the $1 billion authorized by the late December 2022 legislation. This drawdown from existing U.S. stocks was announced at the end of July, is expected to arrive in Taiwan fart faster than the previous FMS purchases, and is supposed to include missiles, firearms, MANPADS portable air defense systems, intelligence and surveillance equipment, training, and education.[27] And, according to Politico quoting one unnamed official, it is to include MQ-9 Reaper drones, though the details are being kept quiet from official, public channels for now because of “sensitivities” involving China.[28] If those drones are actually included, Col. Cedric Leighton, U.S. Air Force (Ret.)—who is one of CNN’s go-to military analysts—wrote that this would be “noteworthy” in a Twitter direct message to me. He continued: “So far, only the U.S., U.K., France, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and the Dominican Republic fly this…so if Taiwan were to receive this system as part of this package it would immeasurably enhance its aerial surveillance capabilities.” He further explained that “the system Taiwan would receive is the unarmed reconnaissance and surveillance version.” When it comes to the reaction from the other side, the former Air Force colonel commented that “China would undoubtedly find the addition of the MQ-9 to the Taiwan battlespace highly provocative, but it would serve to better integrate Taiwan’s intelligence capabilities with those of the U.S.” For Col. Leighton: “These systems would greatly enhance Taiwan’s ability to defend itself. There’s been no confirmation that Taiwan will actually receive four MQ-9As, but it’s difficult to fight today’s battles without such capabilities.”

My own analysis is that this is a big deal more symbolically than anything else, in that this represents a new way to get Taiwan military support in a way that bypasses the deeply backlogged FMS system. The $345 million package is not game-changing as to the substance, but it does get Taiwan its first Reapers in its hands soon, and the point is that this new PDA method is important because the U.S. will keep sending smaller amounts of military weapons, ammunition, hardware, and training programs that will slowly but surely add up over time and amount to quite a lot over the course of the next several years. As Taiwan is not expected to be invaded in the next few years, the priority will be Ukraine in its current hot war, but even drops will eventually fill a bucket and make a large difference over a longer timespan. So few details of this package are known so far, and that will likely be the case with the next several that will very likely be announced for Taiwan. Breaking them up is also sound strategy: China is almost certainly not invading next year or the year after, and keeping the packages small traps China into looking ridiculous if it overreacts.

Going back to the gaps in the two late-2022 bills, to make matters a bit confusing, a top Pentagon official—Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner—reiterated the Department of Defense’s position that all NDAA authorizations should be appropriated for after Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman had demurred to committing to requesting funding for those FMF grants, her State Department being the body overseeing FMF and not the Department of Defense; those grants were not requested in the State Department’s budget request for 2023 and have not been included in 2014 but were added by the TERA legislation for 2023 within the NDAA for 2023. So there are dueling committees in Congress, one inserting authorization for grant funding and the other declining to include appropriations for that grant funding, which the Department of State oversees but has not explicitly asked for and seems not inclined to push for but which the Department of Defense supports as a result of its authorization.[29]

But now it is time to talk about the Republican Party. In my own view (though I am hardly alone), there is something of an issue in the Republican Party, with many in the extreme right even being pro-Russia or anti-Ukrainian and anti-foreign humanitarian aid, some of those folks contrasting that with their staunchly anti-communist, anti-Chinese views; there is an effort on the part of some of these Republicans (Sen. Hawley just being one example) to divert money from Ukraine to Taiwan, as opposed to Democrats in general or Republicans like Sen. Graham who want to forcefully support both Ukraine and Taiwan, just the latter more once the Ukraine situation is much improved or even after Ukraine wins.[30] With recent budget brinksmanship flirting with a shutdown, there is almost certainly concern that there could be a faction of Republicans who would push for funding for Taiwan now and then not ensure the U.S. had enough funding to meet obligations for Ukraine or humanitarian aid elsewhere. The language of both Sens. Graham and Coon from the first few months of the year suggests that it is not so much that they oppose grants to Taiwan but want to seek additional funding to ensure those grants would not impact other programs and would be properly appropriated in concurrent legislation. Ukraine faces a far more immediate threat in a hot war at the moment, China’s attack (if it comes) is not expected in the immediate future, and the U.S. has demonstrated an ability to move air defense systems and other equipment relatively quickly once it decides to do so. So Ukraine for now will remain a more immediate priority and in later 2022, those grants for Taiwan were set aside to give funding to more pressing needs elsewhere. Yet Taiwan still is getting a substantial boost in aid, especially for a wealthy country. There is also the simple fact that the different sections within the State Department that are coming up with their own policies and priorities that are not currently exactly the same as the committee that drafted all the details of TERA, and then you have the Department of Defense commenting on FMF funding that is not its responsibility. Some of this just seems to be bureaucratic complications, as the State Department staff working on FMF and the Defense Department Indo-Pacific Security Affairs staff are, by design and the natural bureaucratic way of things, not generally working together but with others in their own departments, with policy being approved up the chain to Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin up at the top, respectively, and then with senior national security staff in the White House. There was the whole political mess in which the legislation was also, simply, rushed at “the eleventh-hour to avoid a government shutdown, very much increasing the likelihood of disconnect and incidents like this one. If anything, then, this issue really would seem to be the product of the political brinksmanship on the part of Republicans departing from normal procedural and political practice, manufacturing crises and leaving officials and lawmakers without enough time to smooth over details that take time, meetings, and long negotiations to review and finalize (this is me naming names as to who is responsible item 4. from the earlier War on the Rocks list; Republicans are far more to blame for the climate of current delays than Ukraine aid has had any affect by far). Normal procedure was not the case of the process at all with the bills passed at the end of 2022, and we are seeing here its implications for national security policy and why Fitch downgraded the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ first and foremost because of an “erosion of governance.”[31]

But the situation geopolitically and politically is, nevertheless, complex. Ukraine is not only a situation competing with Taiwan for U.S officials’ and lawmakers’ attention as well as weapons, but it is also competing for attention among U.S. media outlets and analysts. Very little discussion of some aspects of this legislation and weapons transfers situation has appeared until the past few months even though the bills were signed into law in December 2022. Between the war in Ukraine, the 2024 election cycle, extreme weather events, and, perhaps most of all, the first federal and state indictments—four thus far–of a former president of the United States for crimes related to cheating or overturning an election, obstruction of constitutional procedure and justice, and trying to maintain presidential authority over classified documents after leaving office, all on top of the declining business environment for many media outlets, there is just not much bandwidth left to cover many stories in their proper context and giving them their proper depth. The author of this very report found it challenging to put all this information together and had to find bits and pieces spread out over a great many months of coverage just to ascertain the exact provisions and ramifications of two major bills passed at the end of 2022.[32]

5. The Current Pending Legislation Enmeshed in an Epic Culture War Showdown

The House and the Senate each passed their National Defense Authorization Acts for Fiscal Year 2024 this July, both for $886 trillion. And yet, there is perhaps an even more absurd form of brinksmanship (hard to imagine in other times but not these) than that of last year occurring in the context of the differences between the two chambers’ bills that will have to be resolved in conference committee—a committee of members from both the House and Senate that will have to agree on a single version to be presented back for approval to both chambers (last year, the House and Senate approved their versions in July and June, respectively, and issues were forebodingly not resolved until December). [33]

When it came to Taiwan, there are yet again some differences. Senate appropriators are pushing for much more funding for Taiwan than House appropriators, meaning “the Senate’s move…again puts Republican defense hawks at odds with deficit hawks in their own party.” The Senate appropriators want $1.1 billion for FY 2024 to replenish stockpiles that would be transferred to Taiwan under PDA, but as to the previously authorized $2 billion in FMF grants (the late December 2022 NDAA did this for 2023-2027), Sens. Graham and Coons only relented from no FMF funding for Taiwan to just $113 million in the current appropriations framework, incidentally or perhaps purposefully, the same amount the State Department has requested for all FMF grants worldwide. Those opposing larger FMF grants to Taiwan in the Senate are doing so in the context of House Republicans on the appropriations side, who ironically are seeking to appropriate $500 million for Taiwan from the FMF grants but are trying to overall drastically cut the State Department budget from where that FMF funding would come from by 24% from what the Biden Administration requested on top of cutting the foreign aid budget and domestic spending, so any and all funding shifts or cuts will carry risk and drama.[34] The NDAA committees in both chambers have also been working on steps to address a number of factors crippling the speed of arms delivery, but it will remain to be seen what makes into the final bill that goes to conference.[35]

Yet in the end, all the NDAA and appropriations bills are in doubt because of deeper divisions in the never-ending all-out culture war consuming American politics these days: the House FDAA only narrowly passed as extremist Republican elements succeeded in removing abortion access, transgender care, and diversity training for military personnel, utter brinksmanship conflating deeply controversial issues with defense and international security authorizations.[36] Sadly, while more extreme than any time in my life, the politicization of national security by Republicans is not a new trend, but, as I have noted before, one that began just after the end of Cold War.[37]

Then there is the issue of the first PDA transfer from the Biden Administration to Taiwan. As discussed, TERA as passed with the NDAA for 2023 opened this drawdown as an option for Ukraine. This is the first drawdown from stocks that would also be available for Ukraine, the first time where there is hard, direct competition in immediately available stockpiles.[38]

At the same time, the drawdown is not that large and the priority is currently Ukraine, so it seems likely Ukraine will keep getting more and larger drawdown transfers than Taiwan, with a minimal loss or perhaps none at all to Taiwan if more funding is appropriated, whereas given the Ukraine situation, Taiwan’s wealthier status compared to Ukraine, and that Taiwan has now a well-over-$19-billion-in-sales-delivery backlog that will eventually make its way to Taiwan, Taiwan will not be “losing” much if anything in the end to Ukraine, since the PDA arms going to Taiwan are primarily being rationalized as a temporary stopgap (at least for now) to address the FMS delays and speed up delivery of weapons for Taiwan in this massive backlog context. As noted, some have misleadingly attempted to portray things in a zero-sum way, but the less dramatic reality is what I have outlined herein. And the numbers being talked about are not terribly large when it comes to PDA numbers for Taiwan—$1 billion authorized for FY 2023, $1.1 billion in reimbursement to replenish stockpiles related to potential Taiwan PDA transfers for FY 2024—that it is more so the unwillingness of many House Republicans to further fund Ukraine or the State Department—the budget of the latter from which FMF money comes—that is the real issue. But if there is one thing the House Republicans under Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) in the era of Trump excel at, it is creating hurricanes of drama out trivial matters or manufactured issues.

6. Concluding Analysis

As we have seen with the war between Ukraine and Russia, single shots from modern Western anti-air/air defense (e.g., Stingers and NASAMS), anti-ship (e.g., Harpoons), anti-tank weapons (e.g., Javelins), and rocket artillery (e.g., HIMARS) paired with modern effective targeting systems can effectively destroy or severely limit the use far more expensive and larger planes, ships, and ground vehicles of all types, even the most advanced Russian surface warships and jet aircraft. Compared to the Russians, Ukraine makes every shell count far more, and a similar edge may end up with Taiwan against Chinese weapons untested in any heavy-use, sustained combat operations. That is not to say I am an expert or up to speed on the military hardware of China, but at least against Russia, we have seen the huge edge Western weapons have over their Russian counterparts, and their ability to perform well under heavy use and with proper maintenance is not in dispute. If anything, Taiwan will be able to benefit from lessons learned from similar weapons or even the same as being used in Russia’s imperialist war against Ukraine. As Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, U.S Army (Ret.) noted about a year ago, “Make no mistake, China is watching” Russia’s performance in Ukraine with consideration for Taiwan.[39] And it is not just the battlefield there that should worry China: Russia’s performance on the battlefield has left Putin’s position at home not just weak, but in a state of near-certain doom over time, if not sooner, no matter who Putin shoots down in a plane flying on the outskirts of Moscow.[40]

A concern for Taiwan and Ukraine has to be the political brinksmanship and dysfunction of the American political system, much as it been for the Fitch credit rating agency. At least the ridiculous backlog Taiwan has been going through has received enough attention that wheels are in motion undertake some serious reform aimed at speeding up its related processes. China, to be sure, is a threat, but it seems almost certain China will not invade this year or next and there is time to get not just the $19 billion of arms sales that is backlogged to Taiwan, but the several billion offered since then and some stocks that PDA would access in the meantime, in addition to billions more that will be authorized in the future. By the time all this equipment arrives, Taiwan will be substantially better equipped with substantially more arms of the very types that have proven so effective in Ukraine in essentially destroy the Russian Military 1.0 that was arrayed against Ukraine in February 2022. Very little of that force still exists, with Russia dragging half-century old tanks and century-old rifles out of storage and handing them to raw recruits that are getting slaughtered on the battlefield.

China will be better equipped that Russia, to be sure, but they have less combat experience now than the Russian military did in February 2022 and far less than that losing Russian military has now. A military fighting on the offensive against a well-equipped, well-trained enemy fighting for his home on his home turf is a nightmare for any invading army. To do so across the sea or by air against an island nation with a significant mountain chain tunning down the length of its island through the middle, where artillery can easily be entrenched in mountain bunker positions that can have the whole coast facing China easily covered is one thing. But to do so while the U.S. arming that county with anti-ship missiles that can make any amphibious landing a nightmare, with anti-air missiles and air defenses that can make airstrikes and air support a nightmare, and with mines and anti-tank missiles that will make it difficult for any troops that survive the crossing or the jump out of the plane to advance further inland or even survive on a beachhead, well, that is, to paraphrase the U.S. Civil War Union General William Tecumseh Sherman, “hell.” China would need to spend a lot of time trying to soften up positions before landing or its troops would get slaughtered (and they may even after). And that time buys time for the U.S. and others, maybe even the powerful militaries of Japan and South Korea, to come Taiwan’s aid and for world diplomatic pressure to come down hard on China and severely damage its economy and other interests. And that does not even account for the small Taiwanese-controlled Islands between the main Island of Formosa and the Chinese mainland—the Penghu islands near Formosa and the Kinmen islands near the Chinese coast—also being major obstacles to any invasion and serving as early warning stations. China would likely need to neutralize them first and that only prolongs the time between the beginning of hostilities and getting large numbers of troops to land on Formosa. There is a reason why Mao and China after the end of the Chinese Civil War neve tried to outright take Taiwan by force.

The large number relatively inexpensive, proven-effective weapons that the U.S. and other Western partners have flooded into Ukraine partnered with some smaller numbers of more expensive systems have dashed Russia’s hopes of imperial revanchism for all the world to see, and, at a smaller pace and over time, the U.S. is doing the same flooding, if at a smaller scale or at least a slower pace, in Taiwan (indeed, has been doing this for many years before Russia’s escalatory 2022 further invasion). The costs for China could be incredibly severe should they opt for an invasion and there is hardly any guarantee of victory. Just ask Russia.

Thus, the arms the arms packages—sales and the first of the Presidential Drawdown Authority releases—laid out here may just be a bit over $3.6 billion in military aid in the span of a year, but they include incredibly effective weapons with significant amounts of ammunition, support equipment, servicing, and training to ensure they can remain operable over time, and this is not an end, but just another drop in a bucket of years of support from the past and years to come in the future, with more than $19 billion in backlogged equipment on its way. To use just one example, if we go back to that Deutsche Welle infographic, currently, China outnumbers Taiwan in fighter jets about 4.2 to 1—1199 to 285. But Taiwan has 66 F-16s on order, already paid for: once they arrive, that ratio drops to about 3.4 to 1, an advantage for China that decreases by about 19% with that one order and that increases the number of Taiwan’s fighter jets by 23%. And, again, this is just the effect of one delivery of one weapons system. There are so many more that came before and will yet come. China is not the only one building up, and the U.S. has been careful to offer full-spectrum support: air, land, sea, ammunition, surveillance, support equipment, training, and logistics. Thus, the $3.6 billion in specific packages are a microcosm of the steady support of the U.S. in augmenting Taiwan’s ability to defend itself, and other U.S. efforts to fix its own supply chain, delivery, and manufacturing issues represent a desire and ability to do better. That the U.S. still keeps trying to find more and better ways to stand by Taiwan even amidst serious dysfunction at home and while supporting Ukraine with a major active war in Europe that is the largest on that continent since World War II speaks to the strength, rather than the weakness, of the American commitment to Taiwan’s defense.

[1] Christina L. Arabia, Michael J. Vassalotti, and Nathan J. Lucas, Transfer of Defense Articles: U.S. Sale and Export of U.S.-Made Arms to Foreign Entities (Congressional Research Service [CRS], 2023); “The U.S. arms sale mode of ‘Direct Commercial Sale’ influence on Taiwan Military Industry development (paper presented at International Studies Association Global South Caucus [GSCIS] Singapore, January 2015); Foreign Military Sales FAQ (Defense Security Cooperation Agency, n.d.).

[2] For a discussion of Russia’s power relative to China and the U.S., see my article: Brian E. Frydenborg, “The Post-Putin World Will Be So Much Better than This One,” Real Context News, February 28, 2023.

[3] The Learning Network, “Oct. 25, 1971 | People’s Republic of China In, Taiwan Out, at U.N,” The New York Times, October 25, 2011; Name redacted, China/Taiwan: Evolution of the “One China” Policy—Key Statements from Washington, Beijing, and Taipei (Congressional Research Service [CRS], 2015); Winston Lord, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Timothy Naftali, and Douglas G. Brinkley, President Nixon’s Trip to China: Fifty Years Later (Council on Foreign Relations, 2022); David Shambaugh and Robert Sutter, “50 Years Later: Richard Nixon’s Historic Visit to China,” GW Today, March 22, 2022.

[4] Stephen Orlins, “Lessons We Can Learn Today From President Carter’s Legacy on China,” The Diplomat, March 11, 2023.

[5] Susan V. Lawrence, President Reagan’s Six Assurances to Taiwan (Congressional Research Service [CRS], 2023); Caitlin Campbell, Taiwan: Defense and Military Issues (Congressional Research Service [CRS], 2023).

[6] For his Cuban Missile Crisis analyses, see Graham T. Allison: Conceptual Models of the Cuban Missile Crisis: Rational Policy, Organization Process, and Bureaucratic Politics (RAND Corporation, 1968); “Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis,” 63, no. 3 (September 1969): 689-718; Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis(Boston: Little, Brown and Company, 1971); and Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow, Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis, 2^nd ed. (Reading: Longman, 1999).

[7] Probably the best edition of Thucydides’ History of the Peloponnesian War is The Landmark Thucydides: A Comprehensive Guide to The Peloponnesian War, ed. Robert B. Strassler, trans. Richard Crawley (New York: Free Press, 1996). For Thucydides as the father of realist international relations theory, see Gregory Crane “Truest Causes and Thucydidean Realisms,” in his Thucydides and the Ancient Simplicity: The Limits of Political Realism (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1998).

[8] See Graham Allison, “The Thucydides Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War?,” The Atlantic, September 24, 2015 and his much expanded argument in his book, Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017) along with Harvard University’s Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs companion website, including case studies throughout history of other Thucydides traps (12 of 16 examples in the last 500 years have led to war) and many additional insights from Allison and various collaborators.

[9] While a whole separate briefing could be written on this subject, for larger discussions of Graham’s views on this and the U.S.-China Thucydides trap in general, see Alan Greeley Misenheimer, Thucydides’ Other “Traps” The United States, China, and the Prospect of “Inevitable” War, National War College (Washington: National Defense University Press, 2019); Richard Hanania, “Graham Allison and the Thucydides Trap Myth,” Strategic Studies Quarterly, 15, no. 4 (Winter 2021): 13-24; Michael Desch, War Is a Choice, Not a Trap: The Right Lessons from Thucydides (Defense Priorities, 2022); Michael A. Peters, Benjamin Green, Chunxiao Mou, Stephanie Hollings, Moses Oladele Ogunniran, and Fazal Rizvi, “US–China Rivalry and ‘Thucydides’ Trap’: Why this is a misleading account,” Educational Philosophy and Theory, 54, no. 10 (2022): 1501-1512; Yanzhong Huang, “The Four Traps China May Fall Into,” Council on Foreign Relations, October 30, 2017; Jonathan Marcus, “Could an ancient Greek have predicted a US-China conflict?,” BBC, March 25, 2019; Win McCormack, “The Thucydides Trap: Can the United States and China avoid military conflict?,” The New Republic, March 17, 2023. The quote is from Allison’s Atlantic article, cited earlier.

[10] Oriana Skylar Mastro, “China’s huge exercises around Taiwan were a rehearsal, not a signal, says Oriana Skylar Mastro,” The Economist, August 10, 2022; Lily Kuo, “China’s military extends drills near Taiwan after Pelosi trip,” Lily Kuo,” The Washington Post, August 8, 2022.

[11] Jennifer Hansler, “Biden administration approves more than $1.1B in arms sales to Taiwan,” CNN, September 2, 2022; U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan (Forum on the Arms Trade, 2023); For more views of Pelosi’s visit, see Thomas L. Friedman, “Why Pelosi’s Visit to Taiwan Is Utterly Reckless,” The New York Times, August 1, 202;, Jonathan Guyer, “The drama over Nancy Pelosi’s Taiwan travel plans, briefly explained,” Vox, August 4, 2022; and Isaac Chotiner, “The Provocative Politics of Nancy Pelosi’s Trip to Taiwan What is the House Speaker’s high-profile visit really about?,” The New Yorker, August 4, 2022.

[12]Matthew Lee, “US OKs $1B arms sale to Taiwan as tensions rise with China,” Associated Press (AP), September 2, 2022; and Hansler.

[13] On China’s last non-minor battle in 1979 and skirmish in 1988, see Derek Grossman, “Vietnam Is the Chinese Military’s Preferred Warm-Up Fight,” The Rand Blog, May 15, 2019. On the numbers behind China’s naval buildup, see China Power Project: How Is Chona Modernizing Its Navy? (Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS], 2022) for a very useful graphical representation of China’s and all major global naval powers’ fleets and recent histories. On my own prescient take on anti-ship missiles being a huge threat to a very vulnerable Russian Navy, in particular the Black Sea Fleet flagship and Slava-class cruiser Moskva, which now sits at the bottom of the Black Sea, see Brian E. Frydenborg, “Ukraine Will Easily Destroy or Sideline Russia’s Navy with Game-Changing Anti-Ship Missiles,” Real Context News, April 10, 2022. For a detailed albeit slightly outdated visual representation of the military strengths and weaknesses of the U.S. relative to each other overall as well as the rapid increase in China’s military capabilities, see Project Air Force: An Interactive Look at the U.S.-China Military Scorecard (RAND Corporation, 2017). For a much more recent report on China’s naval buildup relative to the U.S., see Ronald O’Rourke, China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress (Congressional Research Service [CRS], 2023).

[14] Mike Yeo, “Britain, Germany give update on future Indo-Pacific naval deployments,” Defense News, June 5, 2023.

[15]William Yang, How prepared is Taiwan for a potential Chinese attack?, Deutsche Welle, May 12, 2023; author calculations using data from: International Database (IDB), China and Taiwan selection, U.S. Census Bureau, 2023; and World GP Ranking 2022, Knoema (2022).

[16] “U.S. to boost Taiwan’s stretched air force with $428 mln in spare parts,” Reuters, December 6, 2022; Kayleigh Madjar, “Taiwan thanks US for military sales,” Taipei Times, December 8, 2022; Forum on the Arms Trade, 2023.

[17] Kapil Kajal, “US approves sale of Volcano anti-tank systems to Taiwan,” Jane’s, January 2, 2023; Forum on the Arms Trade, 2023.

[18] Ben Blanchard “Taiwan military to get $619 million U.S. arms boost as China keeps up pressure,” Reuters, March 6, 2023; Forum on the Arms Trade, 2023.

[19] Jon Grevatt, “US approves 30 mm ammunition sale to Taiwan,” Jane’s, June 30; Forum on the Arms Trade, 2023.

[20] Matthew Lee, “US approves new $500M arms sale to Taiwan as tension from China intensifies,” Associated Press (AP), August 23, 2023; Forum on the Arms Trade, 2023.

[21] “China sends aircraft and vessels toward Taiwan days after US approves $500-million arms sale,” Associated Press (AP), August 26, 2023.

[22] Jennifer Kavanagh and Jordan Cohen, “The Real Reasons for Taiwan’s Arms Backlog — And How to Help Fill It,” War on the Rocks, January 13, 2023; Joe Gould, “Slow arms deliveries to Taiwan blamed on US production bottlenecks,” Defense News, February 24, 2023; Nick Wilson, “Ratner: Taiwan weapons transfers delayed by systemic industrial base issues,” inside Defense,July 20, 2023; Jack Detsch and Robbie Gramer, “Taiwan Faces No Trade-Offs With Ukraine But Taipei is also getting tired of supply chain issues,” Foreign Policy, June 1, 2023; John Grady, “U.S. Needs to Clear $19B in Arms Sale Backlog to Taiwan, says HASC member,” USNI News, December 14, 2022; Patricia Zengerle, “US Senator Menendez says he has not changed opposition to Turkey F-16 sale,” Reuters, July 27, 2023; U.S. Department of State Office of the Spokesperson, “FMS 2023: Retooling Foreign Military Sales for An Age of Strategic Competition,” May 18, 2023; U.S. Department of Defense, “Department of Defense Unveils Comprehensive Recommendations to Strengthen Foreign Military Sales June 13, 2023. On the chronic underestimation of the Biden Administration, see my own thoughts in several Real Context News articles: “A BIG F**KING DEAL: Biden’s Infrastructure Bill in Historical Perspective,” November 15, 2021; “Media Keeps Portraying Democrats and Biden as a Mess, Ignoring Data Proving that Could Not Be Further from Truth,” July 11, 2022; and “Biden’s and Democrats’ Historic Awesomeness Cannot Be Denied: Midterms Edition,” January 6, 2023.

[23]James V. Saturno and Megan S. Lynch, The Appropriations Process: A Brief Overview (Congressional Research Service [CRS], 2023); Policy Basics: Introduction to the Federal Budget Process(Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2022); Budget Basics: Spending (Peter G. Peterson Foundation, 2023; Budget Process (Peter G. Peterson Foundation, n.d.).

[24] Maegan Vazquez, “Biden signs vital $858 billion defense bill into law, nixing military’s Covid-19 vaccine mandate,” CNN, December 23, 2022; Patricia Zengerle, “U.S. military bill features up to $10 billion to boost Taiwan,” Reuters, December 8, 2022.

[25] Tami Luhby, “Here’s what’s in the $858 billion defense bill,” CNN, December 15, 2022; Mark F. Cancian and Bonny Lin, A New Mechanism for an Old Policy: The United States Uses Drawdown Authority to Support Taiwan (Center for Strategic and International Studies [CSIS], 2023); Cambell, Taiwan CRS; Bryant Harris, “Pentagon to use new Taiwan arms transfer authority, similar to Ukraine,” Defense News, April 6, 2023.

[26] Bryant Harris, “Congress forgoes $2 billion Taiwan security grants in favor of loans,” Defense News, Dec 21, 2022; Bryant Harris and Joe Gould, “Congress clashes on loans vs. grants for Taiwan military aid,” Defense News, December 15, 2022; Joe Gould and Bryant Harris “Congress wants to arm Taiwan, but hasn’t figured out how to pay for it,” Defense News, December 1, 2022; Russell Hsiao, “The Security Assistance for Taiwan Debate: FMF Loans versus Grants,” Global Taiwan Brief, 8, no. 5 (March 2023): 1-3 [this source is a useful discussion but seems to be confused about the FMF aid being set up possibly as loans, but the text of the TERA section of NDAA bill is clear that there is FMF aid set separately as both loans and grants]; Patricia Zengerle and Michael Martina, “Analysis: How a U.S. budget dispute imperils funding for Taiwan weapons,” Reuters, February 22, 2023; Campbell, 2023.

[27] Nomaan Merchant, Ellen Knickmeyer, Zeke Miller, and Tara Copp, “US announces $345 million military aid package for Taiwan, July 29, 2023; Forum on the Arms Trade, 2023.

[28] Lara Seligman, “U.S. announces $345M weapons package for Taiwan,” Politico, July 28, 2023.

[29] Evaluating U.S-China Policy in the era of Strategic Competition, 118 Cong. (2023) (statements of Ely Ratner, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, and Wendy Sherman, Deputy Secretary of State, February 9, 2023).

[30] For a prominent example an either-or thinking wanting to divert Ukraine aid to Taiwan, see the Dec. 6, 2022, letter from extremist Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) to Sec. of State Blinken.

[31] Ali Zaslav, Ted Barrett, and Clare Foran, “Senate passes $1.7 trillion government funding bill to avert shutdown,” CNN, December 22, 2022; Fitch, “Fitch Downgrades the United States’ Long-Term Ratings to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’; Outlook Stable,” August 1, 2023.

[32] As an example of the delays, the Cancian and Lin CSIS briefing did not come out until August 2023. The relatively lesser-known Defense News covered this well throughout, and I have relied on it for some of the details, but there was little major news or major institutional coverage until more recently. On the general crisis of the U.S. news media, see State of the News Media (Project), Pew, n.d.; Lauren Harris, “Five big findings from the Journalism Crisis Project,” Columbia Journalism Review, March 3, 2021; and Penelope Muse Abernathy and Tim Franklin, The State of Local News 2022 Expanding News Deserts, Growing Gaps, Emerging Models The State of Local News 2022 (Northwestern University Medill School of Journalism, Media, Integrated Marketing Communication, 2022). Currently, there are very few reporters covering the details about Taiwan in the current NDAA and appropriations fights, so my regrettable overreliance on Harris of Defense News (who is usually solid, but it is always regrettable to rely so much on one source and corroboration of his details are few and far between in other sources). Perhaps the more confusing current coverage is a result of resources being spread thin among so many outlets/institutions covering major stories happening at once at a time of shrinking newsrooms and resources. It would take a lot more time for me, writing this report, to go into more detail on this subtopic in large part because of this.

[33] Patricia Zengerle, US Senate backs sweeping defense policy bill, sets up clash with House bill,” Reuters, July 27, 2023; “Actions Overview: H.R.7776 – James M. Inhofe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023,” U.S. Congress, 2022; Fareed Zakaria, U.S.’s political madness takes place against a backdrop of astonishing strength,” The Washington Post, 26, 2023; Julia Horowitz, Denmark has a debt ceiling, too. It’s never been a problem Julia Horowitz,” CNN, May 10, 2023.

[34] Quote from Bryant Harris and Leo Shane III, “Senators rally to boost defense spending, with $1 billion for Taiwan,” Defense News, July 27; Bryant Harris, “Taiwan military aid granted by once-reluctant appropriators, Defense News, June 22, 2023; Bryant Harris, “House narrowly passes defense bill after Dems defect over abortion,” Defense News, July 14, 2023; Various sources present different numbers for the NDAA bill totals, which is odd; for examples, Roll Call, extremely reliable on Congressional matters, has the Senate NDAA at $874 billion and relatively deep-diver Harris for Breaking Defense had $874 billion for the House NDAA; but CNN, Washington Post, and New York Timeshad $886 billion for both House and Senate, so I went with that number. Some of the confusion may be due to differences between what relevant committees passed before the full chambers approved the NDAAs. The lack of detailed coverage and conflicting numbers suggest a news media spread thin as much as anything else considering how big these bills are along with the fact that most detailed discussions of the two large bills passed in late 2022 did not occur until months later. But it also a cry for this basic information to be clearly presented within the bills in question, perhaps a total figure broken down into components at the top or bottom, Congress?

[35] Bryant Harris, “Congress aims for faster arms sales with defense bills and task force,” Defense News, June 28, 2023.

[36] Justin Katz, “Ducking the culture wars, Senate passes NDAA 86-11,” Breaking Defense, July 27, 2023; Karoun Demirjian, “Senate Passes Bipartisan Defense Bill, Setting Up a Clash With the House,” The New York Times, July 27, 2023; Dan Balz, “House Republicans wage ‘woke’ culture wars with the military,” The Washington Post, July 15, 2023.

[37] See my piece: Brian E. Frydenborg, “9/11 Marked Continuation, Not Beginning, of Politicization of Foreign Policy & National Security,” LinkedIn Pulse, September 15, 2016.

[38] Cancian and Bonny, New Mechanism CSIS; Kavanagh and Cohen, Real Reasons for Backlog.

[39] Mark Hertling @MarkHertling “Make No Mistake, China is Watching“, Twitter, August 4, 2022, 10:54 A.M.

[40] See my Russia-Ukraine war articles at Real Context News: “Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine May Take Some Time, But It’s Coming and Sooner Than You Think,” July 30, 2022; “Russia’s Pyrrhic Advances at Soledar Near Bakhmut Setting Up Ukrainian Counteroffensive, Not Russian Victory,” January 13, 2023; “Why Putin Has Doomed Himself with His Ukraine Fiasco,” September 27, 2022; “Putin’s (and Russia’s) Naked Weakness,” June 28, 2023.

Facts, Context Don’t Care About Your Narrative: Gaza Hospital Edition

Brian E. Frydenborg — Thu, 19 Oct 2023 08:19:28 +0000

I believed one thing at first. As more information came in, I let the facts and context guide me and came to believe something else. And while the specific responsibility for this one horrific incident of carnage belonging to one or another side does not substantially change the balance-sheet of history, the dynamics of this long-running conflict, nor the allocation of responsibility for them, the truth matters, no matter what came before or comes after, no matter your narrative, no matters if it helps or hurts your cause or argument.

By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content, my Linktree with all my public links/profiles) October 19, 2023 (*UPDATE October 31: I had some massive technical issues on my site, and an update to the Hospital explosion story mysteriously disappeared, so I have redone that update to include even more information that has been coming out since then about the responsibility for the explosion); excerpted and adapted from yesterday’s much longer 6 Steps for Israel to Take to Still Win, but with Far Better Outcomes for Itself and Gaza; all casualty figures are according to respective local officials unless otherwise noted.

(Arabic الترجمة العربية / Hebrew תרגום לעברית coming soon) The article in one in a series of special reports about the 2023 Israel-Hamas-Middle East Crisis.

See related July 28, 2014 article The Israel-Hamas Gaza High-Stakes Poker Game of Death; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating! Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. Also, Brian is running for U.S. Senate for Maryland and you can learn about his campaign here.

CNN/Al Jazeera

Quite nobly and bravely, some Palestinian doctors, nurses, and medical staff are pledging to stay in northern Gaza—in the hospitals there—dozens even paying with their lives, so as not to abandon their patients, including newborn babies, who will die if they leave.

“If you want to kill us, kill us while we continue working here.”

Doctors in Gaza refuse to leave as they care for infants unable to survive without medical equipment, following calls to evacuate the north amid a looming invasion by Israeli forces. https://t.co/RLcztdhIXG pic.twitter.com/pgWJBOoDlX
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 16, 2023

Especially in light of this, quite sadly and horrifically, the al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza City in northern Gaza was struck by an explosive projectile in northern Gaza just as I was writing this, with estimates in the dead ranging from roughly 300 to 500. I’m not a weapons expert, but on the one hand, this confirmed video of the strike does not resemble other videos of misfired Palestinian rocket attacks, as the IDF claims caused the blast and deaths, and seems closer to resembling a video of an Israeli airstrike especially given the size of the explosion; but on the other hand, factors that can push the conclusion in the other direction are still being digested, such as a lack of a large impact crater, video footage of a Palestinian rocket exploding high above the hospital just before the explosion in question and showing the explosion from a distance immediately after, and that if it was a rocket that misfired, it would have had more fuel so early in its journey, resulting in a larger explosion than normal. The fog of war is still enveloping this situation even if it has become a Rorschach test, with people expressing certainty before having the facts and the incident understandably inflaming the region, making Biden’s visit and diplomatic push far more challenging.

At first, I believed with strong confidence it was an Israeli airstrike, but most of the evidence put forth of the publicly verifiable type favors Israel’s explanation.

But throughout the day more analysis has come through. Despite Israeli’s track record of being caught lying in prominent cases like this, as excellently discussed by CNN’s Christiane Amanpour here, the forensic evidence, from subsequent video to crater/blast analysis, points very strongly, perhaps overwhelmingly, to the conclusion that this explosion resulted from a misfired Palestinian rocket and was an accident. As for the audio presented by Israel purported to be Hamas, it may or may not be authentic; in our present age, this audio could very well be an edited or fabricated cherry that Israel is adorning to the top of its cake of evidence to help win the public relations war it is losing, and some experts have called the audio out as fake, so that and some other aspects of the Israeli narrative are far from perfect. The audio may possibly be a distortion or a lie, but the lack of a large crater and the confirmed video evidence is not. On the other side of things, there is no hard evidence that has been presented to be able to draw the conclusion that this was an Israeli airstrike. I have discussed Israel lying in the past myself, and indeed, a whole article could be written about that (Israel in the past lied about airstrikes, including an incident last year in which it claimed categorically as fact that a misfired Palestinian Islamic Jihad rocket had killed 5 children, it being later reveled there were no rockets launched or falling near the children and they were actually killed by an Israeli airstrike; conversely, as documented by Amnesty International, both Hamas and Islamic Jihad lied and blamed Israel for two rocket misfires in a 2014 incident that killed 13 civilians—11 of them children—claiming they were killed by Israeli attacks; thus, it is wise to not take everything any of these parties to this conflict say at face value without scrutiny) but even if the audio is possibly not credible, the overall circumstantial evidence is credible and very strongly does not indicate an Israeli airstrike and does indicate a misfired Palestinian rocket, whether from Islamic Jihad or Hamas, was responsible, and without any substantive counterevidence, we must go in the direction of the existing evidence unless further substantive evidence changes the picture substantially.

I obviously have no special insight into the Gaza hospital bombing, but as someone who's followed the conflict for many years it would really help Israeli credibility if they didn't routinely lie about violence they inflict on Palestinians. Christiane Amanpour on CNN just now 👇 pic.twitter.com/jL4WvJPemf
— ishmael.bsky.social (@iD4RO) October 18, 2023

10.18.23 10:05 PM ET **UPDATE** With CNN's Continuing coverage of the War Between Israel and Hamas, CNN Anchor Abby Phillip @abbydphillip Hosts CNN Military Analyst Lt. General Mark Hertling US Army (ret) @MarkHertling ( 5:06 ) pic.twitter.com/1WKrkPgpn6
— Jeff Storobinsky (@jeffstorobinsky) October 19, 2023

*(UPDATE) Since this article was published, there have been multiple other independent investigations, most of which admit they can not make a definitive conclusion in the absence of an on-the-ground investigation. Among the new investigations are ones from the AP and CNN, both of which concluded that a misfired Palestinian rocket was the most likely explanation behind the tragic explosion at the hospital. The CNN investigation also allowed for the possibility of an IDF artillery round, but found that possibility less likely based on the available evidence. I personally messaged the serially reliable CNN military analyst, Col. Cedric Leighton USAF (Ret.), to weigh in, and he echoed the CNN investigation in also offering his view that the available evidence strongly favored a misfired Palestinian rocket based on available evidence versus other explanations but also could not rule out an Israeli artillery shell. The Washington Post’s own investigation corroborated Israel’s and the U.S. assessment that a failed Palestinian rocket was the best explanation. Following up on its earlier investigation that also found a misfired Palestinian rocket the most likely explanation but cast doubt on details of both the official Palestinian and official Israeli narrative, the UK Channel 4’s more recent investigation found further evidence to discredit what seems to be doctored or altered audio released by Israel that it claimed to be of Hamas operatives and that also cate doubt on Israel’s account of the trajectory of what caused the explosion (likely exposing Israeli hasbara, Israel’s unique brand of information warfare trying to make Israel’s narrative more convincing than the evidence alone would make it). A New York Times investigation disputed that videos that have been widely cited by other investigations as showing strong evidence that a misfired Palestinian rocket was responsible actually showed what those other investigators concluded, including the aforementioned; rather, it corroborated some other interpretations that stated the videos do not show a misfired Palestinian rocket, casting the situation into further confusion and intensifying the fog of war. The UK-based Forensic Architecture presented its analysis conducted with partner organizations that presented seemingly decent analysis discrediting parts of the official Israeli narrative and favoring the theory that an Israeli artillery round caused the blast, but the organization also seemingly presents the problem of anti-Israeli bias in its presentation: it refers to the IDF as “IOF,” which stands for “Israel Occupation Forces,” “Israel Offense Forces,” or “Israel Offensive Forces;” IOF is a pejorative term that some critical of the IDF and Israeli policy towards Palestinians have taken upon themselves to use to replace IDF; I will simply say that I do not find North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and often referred to by the ensuing acronym DPRK, to be either democratic of belonging to the people; to use another Asian example, China’s army is named the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), but it is neither liberating anything, nor run by the people; in both cases, I do not invent cute if accurate pejorative terms based on my own views, I use the official terminology because that is how the world works in the realm of journalism and research organization, otherwise we could start renaming everything and retitling anyone based on how we personally feel about them; those that do rename based on personal views more than suggest the presence of bias. Al Jazeera put forward its own investigation, but it comes off fairly propagandistic: it presents information it claims disproves that a Palestinian rocket was responsible, but it is not convincing or conclusive at all and does not actually provide any evidence it was an Israeli airstrike, not even addressing the issue of crater size. For its part, Hamas has also not produced any evidence the blast was from an Israeli airstrike or Israeli artillery round. Greatly adding to the confusion around this incident, there have also been glaring errors made by media outlets throughout this process, with few owning up to their errors and both governments and international organizations not adjusted their narratives to newly revealed facts. And one independent analyst who has not received proper clarification after reaching out to multiple major outlets may have even exposed that the figure of 500 killed that supposedly came from the Hamas health ministry—a figure later seen as widely non-credible, though numbers coming out of Gaza from all the other violence are generally seen by aid organizations and the United Nations as largely credible—may have no specific confirmation or evidence supporting that such a claim was actually made. After reviewing all of these, my own view—given the preponderance of independent investigations’ conclusions and the indications of “high confidence” U.S. intelligence—is that a failed Palestinian rocket is still the most likely explanation, but I feel less confident in this conclusion given several other investigations that have different interpretations of video analysis and that it seems very likely both Hamas and the IDF are lying about certain aspects of this in addition to no definitive investigation having yet been conducted on the ground; thus, I went from being pretty convinced it was an Israeli airstrike, to being even more convinced it was a failed Palestinian rocket, to still favoring the Palestinian rocket theory with less confidence and more doubt/questions to be answered.

Your not-so-humble author here has little to add to this incredibly inspiring self-sacrifice of the medical staff or the horror of the still-staffed hospital being struck by some weapon to devastating effect. With the staff, the concept of the Hippocratic Oath taken to such an extreme level will inspire long after this conflict. The bottom line for the purposes of my article is that, hypothetically speaking, if it was an Israeli strike, such a situation is generally quite avoidable, especially given how large hospital complexes tend to be. Yet it is far less avoidable with the current Israeli approach.

Their bravery and sacrifice of the medical staff and the helplessness of their patients mean that, despite the crimes of Hamas, these doctors and their patients deserve all the care Israel can take to save them. Even if this situation was not the result of an Israeli strike—and I am not stating that is the case—the current approaches leave such a possibility wide open, even likely, to still happen. To this end, I call on the IDF and other Israeli authorities to reach out directly to the administrators of the hospitals and to try to coordinate delivery of aid to the hospitals and to coordinate if possible the IDF securing the hospitals as safe zones for civilians and patients unable to be safely moved as well as for the medical staff tending to them. To the degree that Hamas avoids using these hospital as defensive positions or staging areas, there is great opportunity for clear, careful, open coordination avoiding needless loss of life or IDF attacks at these hospitals.

See all of Brian’s work on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict here.