Bold claim, I know, but I bring multiple receipts from 2016, 2020, 2022, and early 2024 (even a 2019 Israeli election!) that were more accurate than most of the mainstream press analysis even when I was not fully on target (including accountability from when I was off in late 2024), while this year, I now have a thread with well over two million views, beginning with predicting all the way back in early March this very political climate and the role of the Iran war in bringing it about.
By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Bluesky, Facebook, Substack with exclusive informal content)
November 3 ELECTION DAY, 2026; (Traduce en español/translate to Spanish soon); because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023, but I still need your help, please keep sharing my work and consider also donating as I make my overdue comeback! Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter means my content is actively suppressed, so your help is invaluable. Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion. See my two-million+-views-strong ongoing Twitter/X thread on the whole mess in the Middle East with the U.S.-led war against Iran & co. here.
SILVER SPRING—Here we are. Not everyone lives through major historical events, but here we are. Hundreds of years of American history, thousands of years of human civilization, indeed the fate of the planet is at stake here. I elaborated on some of the main reasons why recently in my utterly depressing examination of the quarter-century anniversary of 9/11, but the TLDR version is that we—we more than anyone else especially our enemies—are the reason why we are here now: our collective choices by far the determining factor. And choose we must. And while we have no way of knowing with confidence Trump will not cheat, smash the results, and interfere more than he already has tried, if the results will even be honored and if this is the end of our democracy. What will we choose under such unique conditions, not seen since the Civil War and Reconstruction?
Perhaps the most consequential part of this election would be control of the U.S. Senate, and the outcome in the Senate is the main subject here, so let’s get this predictive part out of the way first from the maps I set in the wee hours of this morning:
Democrats’ coalition is at 47 currently: 45 Democrats, plus Bernie Sanders in Vermont and Angus King in Maine as two independents; MAGA is at 53.
The MOST LIKELY Scenario: this map, Democrats winning a coalition of 56 seats (+9) and MAGA 44.
8 Democratic pickups and 1 new Libertarian ally in Nebraska 53 Democrats, 3 independents in a coalition; 9 pickups total.
The FLOOR Scenario: 51-seat Democratic coalition (+4) and MAGA 49.
49 Democrats with a pickup of 4 seats joining Bernie and Angus.
The CEILING Scenario: 60-seat Democratic coalition (+13) and MAGA 40.
56-57 Democrats, with 3-4 independents depending on Montana’s strange race, so 1 or 2 new independents and 11-12 pickups for Democrats, the additional Libertarian on top of the additional one from my most likely scenario by far the more likely scenario than 12 Democratic pickups, 13 for the coalition.
And now that you’ve seen my maps, here is my ranking of all the states that, in my view, are realistically up for grabs even in my floor/ceiling scenarios, in order of the likelihood Democrats (or NOT Republicans, in few cases) will win/how big they will win. Since Democrats are at 47 and JD “JV” Vance is the tie-breaking Vice President, gaining 4 seats gets Democrats a Senate majority. The gains and majorities will also be listed.
- Georgia (defend)
- North Carolina (gain+1, 3 shy of majority)
- Minnesota (defend)
- New Hampshire (defend)
- Ohio (gain+2, 2 shy of majority)
- Texas (gain+3, 1 shy of majority, 50-50 ties but VP Vance tiebreaker)
- Michigan (defend)
- Maine (gain +4 my tipping point, if Dems win here, consider them running Senate, +1 majority)
- Kansas (gain +5, +2 majority)
- Alaska (gain +6, +3 majority)
- Iowa (gain +7, +4 majority)
- South Carolina (gain +8, +5 majority)
- Nebraska (Libertarian, gain-ish +9, +6 majority)
- Florida (gain +10, +7 majority)
- Louisiana (gain +11, +8 majority)
- Mississippi (gain +12, +9 majority)
- Montana (Libertarian most likely, though it’s a serious 3-way race with a Democrat, gain-ish +13, +10 majority)
To be clear, I am and have been predicting since early March that this could very well be one of the great wave elections in American history since Trump bumbled haplessly into a Middle East maelstrom Trump wishes involved only Iran, not just a Democratic Blue Wave, but a Democratic Blue Tsunami. But one that could and even more powerful reaction from Trump, one fatal to our Republic.
I am indebted to the wisdom of legendary Professor Larry Sabato at the singular University of Virginia (Larry is not to be confused with the My Pillow Guy, whatever what guy’s actual name is), whose famous Crystal Ball at Mr. Jefferson’s university should not need an introduction for any true politico; the wonderful folks at the highly-esteemed Cook Political Report; and Nate Silver’s FLIPR model.
Also, some of my earlier work on historical midterms can show you where all this may end up stacking:
I will be offering a fuller state-by-state analysis, including methodology details, later today, but for now, here are my official predictions. So more to come.
© 2026 Brian E. Frydenborg all rights reserved, permission required for republication, attributed quotations welcome
Also see Brian’s two-million+-views-strong ongoing Twitter/X thread on the whole mess in the Middle East with the U.S.-led war against Iran et al. right here, and his eBook, A Song of Gas and Politics: How Ukraine Is at the Center of Trump-Russia, or, Ukrainegate: A “New” Phase in the Trump-Russia Saga Made from Recycled Materials, available for Amazon Kindle and Barnes & Noble Nook (preview here).
If you appreciate Brian’s unique content, you can support him and his work by donating here; because of YOU, Real Context News surpassed one million content views on January 1, 2023. Real Context News produces commissioned content for clients upon request at its discretion.
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