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ISW protests 9-26

Why Putin Has Doomed Himself with His Ukraine Fiasco

Putin’s mobilization is myopically feared by some but does more damage to him at home than anything to help the war effort, the dynamics of which have been set and cannot be altered by this mobilization or “referenda,” gimmicks that ...
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Thoughts on the Passing of Queen Elizabeth II

An anti-monarchist reflects on what we have lost in our modern era: “an image of the splendour of the Kings of Men in glory undimmed before the breaking of the world.” By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook), September ...
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Putin meg

I Saw This War Could Be Putin’s Undoing All the Way Back in Early March

Revisiting my coverage from early in Putin's escalation campaign and a new excerpt (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook), September 16, 2022; with an excerpt from his article The Beginning of the End of Putin? Why ...
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Victors of Kupyansk 2

Russian Army Collapses—and Revolution—Near-Certain as Russia Loses War: When/Where Harder to Predict

Losing this badly will help wake up millions of Russians to some level of reality, and they will blame Putin. It is doubtful that the Russian military will keep fighting under these conditions for much longer. (Russian/Русский перевод; traduction française) ...
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Russian flag captured

Why Is Russia Losing on 3 Fronts? Math (the Short Answer)

In moving troops from stronger positions in Ukraine's east to weaker positions in the country's south, Russia exposed those troops to more danger in the south while making its eastern positions more vulnerable to counterattack, with predictable results playing out ...
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Gatsby toast

A (Half-Million) Milestone, a Thank You, and an Appeal

Real Context News celebrates half-a-million content views, all thanks to you, but there is more work to be done! Warner Bros./The Great Gatsby UPDATE: September 8, 2022: Real Context News passes 600,000 content views (100,000 more in just 11 days) ...
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The 5 (English) Accounts to Follow on Russia’s Ukraine War

There are many Twitter accounts focusing a lot of their attention on the war in Ukraine, and a decent number of solid ones, but these five are the standouts of the standouts (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, ...
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Ukrainian Prudence Meets Russian Limitations: Explaining the Current Pace and Nature of Russia’s War on Ukraine

The factors explaining why things are now happening the way they are happening (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook), August 23, 2022; adapted for and published by Small Wars Journal as Russia’s Limits Meet Ukraine’s Discretion to Slow ...
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Germany Ukraine Refugees welcome

The West’s Humanitarian Response to Ukraine Should Inspire Repetition, Not Envy

What a brief comparison between today’s aid work in Ukraine and efforts during Iraq’s Battle of Mosul against ISIS can teach us (Russian/Русский перевод coming soon) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook), August 9, 2022 People offer rooms for Ukrainian refugees as ...
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Ukraine soldiers celebrate

How Ukraine War Will Likely Go Rest of 2022, or, Kherson: The Beginning of the End for Russia

It’s possible Ukraine can push Russia out entirely (including from Crimea & the Donbas) in the coming months; here’s how that would most likely go down. If my last piece focused on the “why” Ukraine will win, this one focuses ...
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Ukraine M777 firing Donbas

Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine May Take Some Time, But It’s Coming and Sooner Than You Think

Dynamics over time are the key to analyzing just about anything, and they clearly favor Ukraine in Russia’s failing war of conquest (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook), July 30, 2022; adapted version featured by Small ...
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Russo-Georgian 2008 war map

Debunking One of the Worst Arguments Against Increasing Support for Ukraine

Some fools claim that the West has been the aggressor against Russia here. The best argument against this—that enthusiastically helping Ukraine is not only a proper response to Russian aggression in this current war but to a decade-and-a-half of Russian ...
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