Europe News & Analysis (including Russia/CIS)

Russian "Progress" in Bakhmut the past 4 months

THE TWO MAPS SHOWING WHY RUSSIA’S BAKHMUT CAMPAIGN IS UNDENIABLY A MISERABLE FAILURE (including Soledar)

Pictures are often worth a thousand words or even far more, and what I present here is no exception, proof positive of Russia’s pathetic levels of “success” over the course of four months (Russian/Русский перевод; Если вы состоите в российской ...
Read More
Russian "Progress" in Bakhmut the past 4 months

Russia’s Pyrrhic Advances at Soledar Near Bakhmut Setting Up Ukrainian Counteroffensive, Not Russian Victory

Many analysts seem focused on whether proclamations by Russia that it has “won” the battle for Soledar are accurate or how accurate. The bigger picture here shows that regardless, Russia is setting itself up for a titanic defeat because of ...
Read More

An Urgently Needed Definition of “Fascism” as the West Fights It Anew at Home and Abroad

Happy New Year! Sadly, in 2023 and beyond, we will and must confront a dreadful specter of the past not only abroad but also at home: fascism. In our current era it is on the rise, but one of the ...
Read More
Dyagilevo

Russia-Ukraine War Settles into Predictable Alternating Phases, But Russia’s Losing Remains Constant

I have not weighed in with a major piece in a while because I did not feel enough has changed since my last major analysis, but that so much is explained by old analysis is itself telling and worthy of ...
Read More

Winter War in Ukraine: Seeing Through the Blizzard of Bad Takes

Winter is coming, but it won’t affect Russia and Ukraine equally in this war (Russian/Русский перевод; Если вы состоите в российской армии и хотите сдаться Украине, звоните по этим номерам: +38 066 580 34 98 или +38 093 119 29 ...
Read More
Ukraine Mordor Painting

Capturing the Unique Inspirational Quality of Ukraine’s Fight Against Russia via Two Writers

If you’re feeling something stirring deep inside your soul when it comes Ukraine’s fight for its freedom against Putin’s Russia, you should and here’s why (Russian/Русский перевод; Если вы состоите в российской армии и хотите сдаться Украине, звоните по этим ...
Read More
Ukraine war

This Is the Beginning of the End of the War

The current Ukrainian advances will be the ones to push Russian ground forces completely out of Ukraine, leaving any remaining combat to take place on or just over the border with Russia or with longer-range systems, ending major ground combat ...
Read More
ISW protests 9-26

Why Putin Has Doomed Himself with His Ukraine Fiasco

Putin’s mobilization is myopically feared by some but does more damage to him at home than anything to help the war effort, the dynamics of which have been set and cannot be altered by this mobilization or “referenda”/“annexation” gimmicks that ...
Read More

Thoughts on the Passing of Queen Elizabeth II

An anti-monarchist reflects on what we have lost in our modern era: “an image of the splendour of the Kings of Men in glory undimmed before the breaking of the world.” By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook), September ...
Read More
Putin meg

I Saw This War Could Be Putin’s Undoing All the Way Back in Early March

Revisiting my coverage from early in Putin's escalation campaign and a new excerpt (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn, Facebook), September 16, 2022; with an excerpt from his article The Beginning of the End of Putin? Why ...
Read More
Victors of Kupyansk 2

Russian Army Collapses—and Revolution—Near-Certain as Russia Loses War: When/Where Harder to Predict

Losing this badly will help wake up millions of Russians to some level of reality, and they will blame Putin. It is doubtful that the Russian military will keep fighting under these conditions for much longer. (Russian/Русский перевод; Если вы ...
Read More
Russian flag captured

Why Is Russia Losing on 3 Fronts? Math (the Short Answer)

In moving troops from stronger positions in Ukraine's east to weaker positions in the country's south, Russia exposed those troops to more danger in the south while making its eastern positions more vulnerable to counterattack, with predictable results playing out ...
Read More