Why Putin Has Doomed Himself with His Ukraine Fiasco

Putin’s mobilization is myopically feared by some but does more damage to him at home than anything to help the…

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I Saw This War Could Be Putin’s Undoing All the Way Back in Early March

Revisiting my coverage from early in Putin’s escalation campaign and a new excerpt (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn,…

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Russian Army Collapses—and Revolution—Near-Certain as Russia Loses War: When/Where Harder to Predict

Losing this badly will help wake up millions of Russians to some level of reality, and they will blame Putin.…

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Ukrainian Prudence Meets Russian Limitations: Explaining the Current Pace and Nature of Russia’s War on Ukraine

The factors explaining why things are now happening the way they are happening (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn,…

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The West’s Humanitarian Response to Ukraine Should Inspire Repetition, Not Envy

What a brief comparison between today’s aid work in Ukraine and efforts during Iraq’s Battle of Mosul against ISIS can…

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How Ukraine War Will Likely Go Rest of 2022, or, Kherson: The Beginning of the End for Russia

It’s possible Ukraine can push Russia out entirely (including from Crimea & the Donbas) in the coming months; here’s how…

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Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine May Take Some Time, But It’s Coming and Sooner Than You Think

Dynamics over time are the key to analyzing just about anything, and they clearly favor Ukraine in Russia’s failing war…

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How Delusions of Phantom Fascists Duped Stalin in 1939 and Putin in 2022

Before Stalin launched his war against Finland in 1939, Soviet war planners based their planning on the self-serving, inaccurate fiction…

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The Real Context News Podcast #9: Oleksandra Matviichuk, Head of Ukraine’s Center for Civil Liberties, on Democracy & War in Ukraine

By Brian E. Frydenborg (LinkedIn, Facebook, Twitter @bfry1981, YouTube)  April 2, 2022 (recorded March 31, 2022); see Brian’s other coverage of Putin’s war against…

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Time for the Russian Army and Russian People to Revolt and Overthrow Putin

While any NATO attack on Russia—including a no-fly zone where Russian military aircraft are operating in Ukraine—would likely mean World…

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Putin’s Zombie Russian/Slavic Ethnonationalism Is Utterly Banal

As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addresses the U.S. Congress, a look at the emptiness of his Russian counterpart’s ideological and…

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How Best to Penetrate Putin’s Media Iron Curtain in Russia? Dead Russian Troops

Why thousands of dead Russian soldiers are likely beyond the skill of Putin’s disinformation propaganda gaslighters and can strike at…

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On Casualty Counts in Russia’s War on Ukraine

Credibility and other factors lead to a far more honest accounting from Ukraine than Russia when it comes to Russians…

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