I Saw This War Could Be Putin’s Undoing All the Way Back in Early March

Revisiting my coverage from early in Putin’s escalation campaign and a new excerpt (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn,…

Continue Reading →

Russian Army Collapses—and Revolution—Near-Certain as Russia Loses War: When/Where Harder to Predict

Losing this badly will help wake up millions of Russians to some level of reality, and they will blame Putin.…

Continue Reading →

The 5 (English) Accounts to Follow on Russia’s Ukraine War

There are many Twitter accounts focusing a lot of their attention on the war in Ukraine, and a decent number…

Continue Reading →

Ukrainian Prudence Meets Russian Limitations: Explaining the Current Pace and Nature of Russia’s War on Ukraine

The factors explaining why things are now happening the way they are happening (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn,…

Continue Reading →

The West’s Humanitarian Response to Ukraine Should Inspire Repetition, Not Envy

What a brief comparison between today’s aid work in Ukraine and efforts during Iraq’s Battle of Mosul against ISIS can…

Continue Reading →

How Ukraine War Will Likely Go Rest of 2022, or, Kherson: The Beginning of the End for Russia

It’s possible Ukraine can push Russia out entirely (including from Crimea & the Donbas) in the coming months; here’s how…

Continue Reading →

Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine May Take Some Time, But It’s Coming and Sooner Than You Think

Dynamics over time are the key to analyzing just about anything, and they clearly favor Ukraine in Russia’s failing war…

Continue Reading →

A Flurry of Telling Parallels Between the 1939-1940 Soviet-Finnish Winter War and Russia’s 2022 Ukraine War

Apart from other thematic ways I already discussed that Putin today is repeating Stalin’s mistakes from the disastrous launching of…

Continue Reading →

Moscow’s 1939 Finland Hubris Repeats Itself in Ukraine in 2022

Stalin and his Kremlin inner circle were egregiously overconfident in their planning for the Soviet Union’s invasion of Finland in…

Continue Reading →

How Delusions of Phantom Fascists Duped Stalin in 1939 and Putin in 2022

Before Stalin launched his war against Finland in 1939, Soviet war planners based their planning on the self-serving, inaccurate fiction…

Continue Reading →

“Banderites”: What Russia Really Means When It Calls Ukraine Nazi and Fascist

Putin thought he could use Ukraine’s complicated history that even divides Ukraine to his significant advantage in his massive military…

Continue Reading →

A Brief History of Russian and Soviet Genocides, Mass Deportations, and Other Atrocities in Ukraine

War crimes, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, and mass killings carried out by their eastern neighbor are nothing new for…

Continue Reading →

A Terrifying Comparison Between Putin and Stalin

Looking at the geopolitics of Eastern Europe in 2022 and 1939 is both illuminating and disturbing (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg,…

Continue Reading →