Winter War in Ukraine: Seeing Through the Blizzard of Bad Takes

Winter is coming, but it won’t affect Russia and Ukraine equally in this war (Russian/Русский перевод; Если вы состоите в российской…

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Why Putin Has Doomed Himself with His Ukraine Fiasco

Putin’s mobilization is myopically feared by some but does more damage to him at home than anything to help the…

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I Saw This War Could Be Putin’s Undoing All the Way Back in Early March

Revisiting my coverage from early in Putin’s escalation campaign and a new excerpt (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn,…

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Russian Army Collapses—and Revolution—Near-Certain as Russia Loses War: When/Where Harder to Predict

Losing this badly will help wake up millions of Russians to some level of reality, and they will blame Putin.…

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The 5 (English) Accounts to Follow on Russia’s Ukraine War

There are many Twitter accounts focusing a lot of their attention on the war in Ukraine, and a decent number…

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Ukrainian Prudence Meets Russian Limitations: Explaining the Current Pace and Nature of Russia’s War on Ukraine

The factors explaining why things are now happening the way they are happening (Russian/Русский перевод) By Brian E. Frydenborg (Twitter @bfry1981, LinkedIn,…

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How Ukraine War Will Likely Go Rest of 2022, or, Kherson: The Beginning of the End for Russia

It’s possible Ukraine can push Russia out entirely (including from Crimea & the Donbas) in the coming months; here’s how…

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Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine May Take Some Time, But It’s Coming and Sooner Than You Think

Dynamics over time are the key to analyzing just about anything, and they clearly favor Ukraine in Russia’s failing war…

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Debunking One of the Worst Arguments Against Increasing Support for Ukraine

Some fools claim that the West has been the aggressor against Russia here.  The best argument against this—that enthusiastically helping…

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A Flurry of Telling Parallels Between the 1939-1940 Soviet-Finnish Winter War and Russia’s 2022 Ukraine War

Apart from other thematic ways I already discussed that Putin today is repeating Stalin’s mistakes from the disastrous launching of…

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Moscow’s 1939 Finland Hubris Repeats Itself in Ukraine in 2022

Stalin and his Kremlin inner circle were egregiously overconfident in their planning for the Soviet Union’s invasion of Finland in…

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How Delusions of Phantom Fascists Duped Stalin in 1939 and Putin in 2022

Before Stalin launched his war against Finland in 1939, Soviet war planners based their planning on the self-serving, inaccurate fiction…

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